Welcome to my Saratoga Handicapping Project-2013! This season marks the 150th Anniversary of the opening of "The Spa" - the mecca for all thoroughbred race fans. I was fortunate enough to visit Saratoga on the first weekend of my retirement two years ago, and this year I went to the historic Travers Stakes on August 24, with my brother-in-law Jason. What follows below is a journal account, in multi-media format - rich in not only photographs, but also video recaps - of my summer adventures while handicapping each and every card of Saratoga's anniversary season. The first half of the summer racing season can be found by clicking on the horse logo below. I hope you enjoy my adventures!
Saratoga 2013 Highlights
Opening Day "Where The Surf Meets The Turf!"
Two days before kick off to the "Summer at the Spa" Handicapping Project, we get underway at Del Mar - site of my 2012 summer handicapping project! I was lucky enough to be on track, with Kim for a getaway weekend in San Diego, for their opening weekend card last summer. The summer meet produced more long shot winners for me in that one meet than I've ever had over my entire handicapping career, and nearly every one of them came from angles from the "Del Mar Handicapper" - a statistical analysis of the meet produced by local handicapper Jim Mazur. It was a good day of handicapping at Del Mar, though the bottom line was not in the black.....still I thought I did a good job, especially for such a wide-open card with such a lack of real formful horses to pick from. My "upset of the day" in the opener scratched, then I nailed the winner of the second when Keep Movin won and paid $10.60! But I had passed the race, no bet :( Katy's Star made a big move into the lane in the third, but was outfinished....2nd. My Lucky Rose was my "Best" in a 2yo MSW, but she got slammed twice coming out of the gate and that was that. The highlight of the day came in the Oceanside Stakes when my top pick, Gervinho came roaring through the lane to get the lead late and hold off the deep closers. I had doubled the bet and he was 4/1 at post time, but the late money came pouring in and he went off at 5/2, paid $7.80 so I cleared nearly $40. My last three selections were also good prices and I thought I had a real shot heading into the final furlong, but missed in all three. I lost just a little in spite of only cashing one ticket, but it's on to Saratoga's Opening Day on Friday! WHOOO HOOOO!
July 19: Opening Day
Today was a very good way to start off the "Summer at the Spa" Handicapping Project as I scored with three out of six selections, including all three "added money" investments that I posted on my Facebook page!
It was the Grade 3 Schuylerville for two-year-old fillies. I went with Bahnah who had been ultra impressive in her June debut, and had been training lights out. I liked her stalk and finish style. It was a thrilling finish as she was trying to catch the 2/1 second choice - every slow-motion replay it looked too close to call - because it was a DEAD HEAT! Great Race! I would have earned nearly $45 if she'd one outright, but I was happy to cash the winning ticket for nearly $25 and it made me a profitable handicapper on the day! WHOOO HOOOOOO!
July 20: Delaware Handicap Day
True, the focus of this part of the summer is the handicapping at Saratoga, but today's national card had multiple graded stakes and my "BEST" bets were not at Saratoga, though I had several. Sadly, I didn't cash a single ticket at the Spa. The two main selections for me were locally at Calder, and my BET of the DAY was the Grade 1, $750,000 Delaware Handicap featuring one of my most favorite mares, Royal Delta.
The day started well enough, after finishing well back at Saratoga in a turf sprint I scored in my first of three selections on the day at Calder when Casiguapo easily wired his maiden rivals. After missing in the 2nd at Gulfstream I won my "best" of the day with Majestic Express (see at right). As the betting opened he was an amazing 4/1 and I in fact double-checked to make sure I had the number right! He went down to 3/1 as post time approached, but the "wise guys" got it right and he took a ton of late money - hammered to 3/5. He ran his unbeaten streak to 3-for-3 at Gulfstream with a convincing win - my triple investment on him was good for nearly $25. I ran 4th, 3rd, and then a very close second at Saratoga at a big 6/1 - oh that would have been nice!
A field of 10 lined up for the Florida Stallion Stakes for 2yo colts, and uncharacteristically the field had but TWO juveniles with a win on their resume! And only one, #1-My Brown Eyed Guy, had earned his win in Maiden Special Company. The only obstacle I saw was the rail draw. He broke tardily, but recovered, moved to challenge for the lead, and assumed command by midway on the turn. When asked for his best at the top of the lane he drew off with authority. As the betting had unfolded I made a command decision to up the bet from a minimum to a double investment! Wise move Mr. Mark!
My former student, Rosemary Hoemeister, let me down at Arlington where she was on board the 3/2 favorite and could only manage 4th. Then it was time for my "BEST" of the Day at Calder in my third and final selection locally. The pick was Angelica Zapata who had ruled the filly & mare handicap division all last summer. She'd had a good comeback race last time on the turf, but today was a one mile trip on the main, right up her alley! I had $20 to win......TWICE! She had a nice comfortable spot on the rail into the far turn, but found herself trapped there turning for home. She finally got free with a 16th to go and closed with a rush to score! WHOOO HOOOO! The $40 investment returned over $75! I missed witha longshot at Saratoga when I picked former turf Grade 1 winner Willyconker to upset and allowance field - 8th at 11/1. Got my next winner at Monmouth where Yuzuru had three speed figures that towered over his rivals. Easy, peasy pie at 5/2 - got back $35! I had back-to-back tough beat seconds - first at Saratoga and then at Gulfstream before I brought home another winner. That was in the undercard supporting feature at Delaware in the six furlong Sweet and Sassy Stakes. Winning Image had won three in a row on the front end and looked to steal it again. She set blistering fractions of :21 and change and then :44 and change. But as they turned for home she had another gear and drew off with authority! Another $16 in my pocket!I missed on five in a row - all at fair prices - before it was time for my "BET of the DAY" - the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap. Royal Delta had lost in Dubai again this spring, and like last year she'd looked to rebound in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis at Churchill Downs on "Downs After Dark" / Stephen Foster night when we were there with 17 friends and relatives. She was my bet of the day and I had expected a huge effort. Instead she was second, but it was her lowest speed figure in two years and many wondered if she'd finally gone "over the top." I know that trainer Bill Mott and Besilu Stables believe she can three-peat in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic this fall, and their confidence seemed supported by her back-to-back bullet works at Belmont. My other concern was that when she won this race last year, it was a real dogfight and THAT had been one of her lesser efforts....would she handle the track ok? But, all of this was offset by my belief that she was simply best and it was aided by the pace analysis - she looked to be the ONLY FRONT RUNNER! Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith sent her to the front and she cleared easily! But after a swift half mile in :47 and change (for a 1 1/4 mile race) I thought she might have gone too fast, too soon. No worries. She opened up by six, seven.....ten, twelve, and cantered home by nearly fifteen lengths! My $50 win ticket brought in a clean $70! Great times!
Day 3 at the Spa found us on the road in a U-Haul cargo van delivering a couch to Brad and Lauren's new apartment. It's a nice place and it was good to help out "the kids" by financing that rental and delivery......the trip home was a nightmare with tropical storm-like rain nearly 3/4 of the way. But, through the beauty of twinspires.com I was able to "be at the races" virtually! When we returned home late Sunday evening I went online and watched how my selections had run.
I had the winner on top in the opener at 5/2, but it was a no-bet. My first investment came in the second and I ran a non-threatening 5th at 5/1 with a Chad Brown layoff runner. But I scored with my "best" of the day in the 4th when Uno Duo just destroyed an allowance field going 7 furlongs. Uno Duo had dominated her maiden rivals two back, then ran a career best 85 speed figure for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott in her first try against winners, only to be caught late - but she was over seven lengths clear of the show horse. Today she rated kindly and drew off with authority. I came right back to score in the 6th, my next selection, with a Todd Pletcher maiden......I know, like who can't figure that out! But to be fair, it was a turf route and he's typically not as effective in those. To me however, it looked like Vinny Goodtimes was obvious. His debut came vs. better at this distance and he'd been favored. He'd taken the lead late, but like Uno Duo was caught late while being best-of-the-rest second. He came back and won by nearly the length of the stretch today!
A Pletcher filly, taking on the boys, was my pick in the Grade 2 Sanford, the feature, but she scratched. And I lost in the finale when She's Stones Sis was nailed on the wire - would have made me a nearly $50 winner on the day....sigh.
July 22
Wow - what a discouraging end to the racing week! My horses ran dead last not once, not twice, but three times from seven selections. John Velazquez looked like an apprentice rider today, even on his mounts for Todd Pletcher as he was squeezed at the break to dead last twice and did not rate his front-running favorite in the feature race, losing to a $25 longshot. Take heart from two seconds and two thirds on the day - if there is anything to be taken from today. Back to the races on Wednesday after a dark day - the feature Wednesday is the Grade 2 Lake George for sophomore fillies and the marquee name is Tapicat, who was sensational winning all three starts this winter in Florida.
July 24
Week Two of "Summer at the Spa" was disappointing....again....and I extended my winless streak to FOURTEEN. Sigh.....I really thought I had at least two winners on the card. Callana was a Double Beyer Speed figure advantage horse in the sixth, on the turf. She'd finished second behind a repeat winner and well clear of the show runner for Bill Mott. Easily, so I thought. Set a controlled pace to the top of the lane and then evenly to the wire. Big surprise as one of my "best" bets of the day. My "BEST" of the day was in the featured Grade 2 Lake George for sophomore fillies on the grass. I knew Kitten's Dumplings was a real threat, but her most recent loss had been to unbeaten (on the turf) Tapicat in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks at Tampa. Tapicat had not been seen since, but was working well and I thought in spite of her previous win over Kitten's Dumplings that she'd be a better price. I was right, and I was also right in thinking that Tapicat did not have to have the lead as she was patiently ridden in second behind a scorching front-runner who went :21 and change and :45 and change for a mile and a sixteenth turf race. Tapicat took charge turning for home, but here came Kitten's Dumplings. Jockey Mike Smith asked her for run and it seemed to me that she didn't display the same kick.....maybe due to the long layoff. I wasn't surprised at her third place finish, but was disappointed when Watsdachances ran second and I had seriously considered boxing the three of them rather than a straight win bet......sigh.....maybe tomorrow a winner?
July 25
FINALLY! To my credit I did not back down from my two triple investments on Todd Pletcher first-time starters. It would have been easy, given the 14, yes....FOURTEEN losses in a row to back off the wagers. And I won't lie, I did consider it. But I didn't. I stood my ground and was rewarded. In the opener Corfu broke behind a quick starting maiden he had a race under her belt. But she went a sizzling :21.1 for the opening quarter and was shortening stride when Corfu "inhaled" her, as Hall of Fame announcer Tom Durkin called it. She had to race bravely late to hold off the closers, but I was never really worried. HORRAY! The streak is put to bed. After missing on two minimum bet selections I came right back with another triple investment on the Michael Repole-owned Our Amazing Rose in the 5th. She was truly dominant and looks to have a promising future ahead of her. Later, after the race Pletcher was quoted as saying he'd consider bringing her back in Grade 1 Spinaway over Labor Day weekend.
July 26
Only one win on the Friday card, but it was a thrilling one. The results for the day largely rested on my selection in the opener. Horse-for-the-Course Currency Swap dropped out of graded company to take on four rivals in a sprint. He was coming off a long layoff, but I felt he would fire his "A" game ..... and even his "A-" or "B" game would be good enough. The fans agreed and sent him off at 4/5, but it was obvious that he was not going to put this field away, and would in fact have to struggle to hit the board.....he was fortunate to hold to third. I thought I had a chance to "even the score" in the 3rd when Brabbham looked to running easily on the lead at 2/1, but he weakened and had nothing for the stretch....again fortunate to hold to third. In the 5th The Lady Says Yes trailed the field, way out of the TV picture through dawdling fractions of :51.1 and 1:16.3 - but as they hit the far turn he was gobbling up ground on the fence; then swung out four wide once they straightened for home and he had the most momentum. The only question was which would come first, the wire or The Lady...... P H O T O - F I N I S H !!!!! But I felt pretty certain that she'd had her head down on the wire. EXCITING WIN! WHOOO HOOO! I was disappointed I didn't get a better price, but it was good for near $30. The last two races were losses - the "wrong half" of the entry ran 3rd in the 6th and Proud Strike was a non-threatening fifth in the featured $100K Curlin Stakes.
July 27
Multiple graded stakes action on Jim Dandy Day and I had two "BEST" bets today in multiple graded stakes stars Kauai Katie in the Grade 1 Prioress Stakes in the fifth race and multiple graded stakes star Stephanie's Kitten in the Grade 1 Diana in the 9th. Both were sent off as the odds-on favorite, due in part to their previous wins here and their obvious edge over the competition. But both were disappointments in a BIG way today. 'Katie ran a dismal 7th and last in her field after it was obvious that she had nothing from the get-go. HUGE disappointment for what I thought was one of the best sprinters in the country. Then 'Kitten gets a partial pass when a scratch reduced the field to only four and left one front runner who was able to nurse her speed and just last over a fast-closing, but third run by my filly. The only highlight to the day came in the opener when Ciaxia Electronica drilled the opposition as my triple investment. Thought I was off to a good day.....sigh. Still struggling here at Saratoga. Heading out to Calder tomorrow with my Mom and sister who are on their annual pilgrimage to Florida to help me celebrate my birthday this coming week.
July 28 - Haskell Invitational Day (at Monmouth Park)
When my Mom, sister, and niece arrived from Ohio for the week to meet our grandson Cameron and celebrate my birthday I was afraid that I wouldn't be able to take them to the races....and my Mom really enjoys going to the races. But after a really great visit in Englewood at Kim's parents' condo, we headed home on Saturday evening leaving Sunday free for a trip to the races. I asked my Mom if she wanted to go, and both she and my sister said they wanted to. So, I had already handicapped both the Saratoga card for the day, obviously, and the Monmouth card because today was the Haskell Invitational - a key summer race for the three-year-olds; and it featured my favorite sophomore, Verrazanno. It turned out to be a great day at the races, with the lone sour note being that I was A-G-A-I-N shut out at Saratoga :(
We arrived ten minutes before post time at Calder and about fifteen minutes to my first play at Monmouth, the Teddy Drone Stakes. At Calder I was the 2/1 favorite but ran evenly around the track to be fourth. In the Teddy Drone it looked to me like the #1, Immortal Eyes was THE speed of the race and would wire the field in hand....he had Joe Bravo, Monmouth's all-time leading rider and a bullet work. Sure enough, he rocketed out of the gate and looked to be long gone in mid-stretch, but was all out to hang on for the win (see below right). I'd doubled the investment and got back over $15. I then went on what has become a typical streak....7th, 2nd, 5th, 7th, 6th.....wow. Started to wonder if it really had been a good day to be at the races. Side story - when I went to cash my ticket on Immortal Eyes I discovered I had thrown that ticket away and kept the worthless Calder ticket - sigh. Luckily there was a small crowd at Calder and very little in the trash can; and very luckily I had not torn the ticket up! It was then time for the 4th at Calder and I had doubled the bet on a debut two year old, Light Bringer.....he was the DRF handicapper's "BEST" of the day. He broke a step slowly, but recovered and was stalking the trio of front runners. A seam opened on the rail and he was encouraged to go through - something many older horses won't do. He hesitated and then tried to go through, but the seam narrowed! Inside the 16th pole the seam opened just a bit and he squeezed through to score (below right!). I couldn't make out the odds, but I thought it was 6/5....no, 5/2! OH MY! My winnings were nearly $40! I went inside and they were in the gate at Gulfstream for their third..... I had "handicapped" Gulfstream, Woodbine, and Arlington Park by pouring through the narrative analysis posted online. For Gulfstream's 3rd I had read that The Chill Zone was dropping out of an allowance spot, in for a tag today AND that allowance race had already produced THREE next-out winners. He was my pick - the gates flew open and he burst out from the wide draw. He took them gate to wire and was never threatened! My second win in a row! Less than fifteen minutes later they were in the gate for my only selection at Arlington.....a maiden two-year-old race going a flat mile on the turf. There were two horses entered for Ken & Sarah Ramsey from the Wayne Catalano barn. With the same rider named on both I was confident that who ever ran would win. But as they approached the gate I saw that BOTH were in the race! As they turned for home the entry drew away from the field and could have cared less which one actually crossed the wire first! THREE WINS IN A ROW! I went to the windows and cashed my tickets for a very nice $75! After I missed at Saratoga, to end the three-race win streak I was back at Gulfstream for their fifth - a claiming sprint.....
Witch's Orchard was making his second start off a layoff for Peter Walder and this was a 30% win angle. He was bet down to 4/5, but I still only had the minimum on him. He broke alertly, then took back to fourth as they reached the far turn. The rider asked and he was LONG gone.....another winner! Could I be starting another win streak? Fifteen minutes later they were approaching the gate at Calder. Prior to that my sister told me she was done betting unless I had a bet at Calder that I was really confident in. I replied that I felt VERY confident in BOTH of my last two selections. In the 7th, a maiden claimer, my pick was Canterra who had been five clear of the show horse when dropped to this level last time out as a clear best-of-the-rest; and he was going out for a 21% winning barn. He broke alertly from the outside and was quickly two in front. My Mom, who had also bet him, said she didn't like him on the lead as they approached the far turn. I told her that he would only lengthen the lead - the farther they'd go, the farther he'd be in front. I was right on the money as he romped home easily! My second win in a row and I cashed for over $15 with my doubled investment. Less than fifteen minutes later the were in the game for my lone added money investment at Woodbine. Rock's Sweet Thing had been a late running third in a sprint last out in his second career start. Today was his third start, and he was stretching to two turns. Handicapper Jim Bannon made him his "BEST" of the day. He stalked the pace in fifth, glided effortlessly to the lead on the turn and drew off with authority! ANOTHER THREE-RACE WIN STREAK!
Calder was only running eight live races today and in the finale I'd picked a 20/1 runner if it was on the turf. But if it came off and was moved to the main track I thought that #1 Exclusive Moon was the speed on the rail and would be LONG GONE! As they moved to the gate I told Mom and Laurie that I'd be watching from the gate, and my sister had indeed made the bet. As I left I turned and said, "he'll break on top and be long gone on the lead!" The gates opened, Exclusive Moon burst to the front and raced wire to wire without ever being seriously threatened! WHOOOO HOOOOO! FOUR IN A ROW! As we headed to the car I'd scored on EIGHT of my final TEN selections! Regardless of how the final six plays went it had been an amazing day at the races - especially in light of the slow parade of winners this week at Saratoga!
I had made my final set of wagers earlier in the afternoon, so when we got home I watched the replays from the first two. I closed the day at Saratoga with my fourth fourth and fifth losses when Sneaky Freud was no better than fourth at 9/2 and Midnight Taboo failed to hit the board, also 4th, as the even money favorite. But in between was my final bet at Gulfstream. Ron Nicoletti had made Million Dollar Man his "Best" of the day, which was interesting because this was a 4 1/2 furlong maiden race for juveniles! He'd set the pace last ime from the rail before finishing third behind a very impressive winner. Today he broke from post eight and looked to have more comfortable trip. He stalked the leaders, moved swiftly to the lead as they spun out of the turn and lengthened stride to the wire to score as the 8/5 favorite. I'd doubled the bet and cashed for nearly $30! I am having a very good day!
My final three selections were in graded stakes - I had the minimum on Hudson Steele in the Grade 3 Oceanport on the turf at Monmouth. He was a fair 3/1 and ran well, but was third. Then it was time for the feature race of the day and the signature race of the Monmouth Park summer meeting - the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational. A field of seven sophomores were lining up today and I thought that Verrazanno, who'd been my Kentucky Derby selection would confirm that his lone career setback in the Kentucky Derby could truly be attributed to either the trip, the mud, or the Churchill surface - or all three. Today, I thought, he'd make his move to be considered a leading contender for three-year-old of the year. John Velazquez had him ideally positioned outside the longshot front runner as they headed down the backstretch. Then like I'd seen him do so often in the spring, on the turn he moved effortlessly to the lead. I could tell Velazquez was sitting on a ton of horse and as heads turned for home I called out, "LET HIM LOOSE JOHNNY!" Not sure if he heard me :) but Verazzanno burst away from the field and won geared down by ten widening lengths! YES! He had been my "BEST of the DAY" and I was going to cash my ticket for over $30!
July 29 - A PERFECT Day at Saratoga In what has to be considered a rare treat today, I was a perfect 3-for-3 at Saratoga today. After the way the first two weeks had played out I made a conscious decision to try and (a) be more selective with the races I invested in and (b) scale back on the investments unless I truly felt I had a big edge. In spite of my conservative approach I found myself with a selection in the opener. I had even begun to write that none of the fillies in this turf event had shown any reason to back them. But then I noticed that Madris was first off the claim for Michael Maker and owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey, with Joel Rosario on board. I don't know what it is about that trio, but ever since the opening of Keeneland this spring they seem to win nearly every race that they hook on. As the race itself unfolded Rosario had his filly in mid pack but pinned on the rail. As they approached the far turn a seam opened and he sent her through without having to really ask for run and suddenly instead of 7th behind horses he was second on the rail just waiting for a seam. As they turned for home the opening appeared and the race was over. He had her geared down to a canter as they easily crossed the wire; and with that I'm 1-for-1 on the day! In the very next race I again found a play. Wedding Toast was a Saratoga 40% Club play for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin - and in TWO categories. Wedding Toast debuted in a six furlong sprint and today was stretching out to nine furlongs. That is a 46% winning angle for the barn, and simply dirt routers have won at a big 48% over the past three seasons at Saratoga. As the gates opened Wedding Toast went right to the front and set reasonable fractions. When they hit the far turn he got his first challenge, but turned that one away. But right away a closer was coming with all the momentum. But he had another gear and was long gone as well! Two-for-two on the day!
I only had two other selections, the first was in the 6th, but only if it came off the turf - which it did not. So that left me with my top selection of the day in the featured Grade 2 Honorable Miss.........The Honorable Miss was a six furlong sprint for fillies and mares that is the local prep for the seven furlong Grade 1 Ballerina later in the meet. The field looked fairly evenly matched race, and three fillies stood out to me. First there was A Glorious View who looked to be the speed of the race if she could get loose on the lead, but I thought that would be unlikely. Second was Burban. She had run a very good second in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff two back, and if that had been her last race she might have been the top pick. But she wheeled back to run in the Grade 3 Winning Colors, which should have produced at least an equal effort. Instead she'd been a non-threatening fourth. She rebounded when dropped into an overnight stakes at Belmont, but I didn't care for that effort in the Winning Colors; especially in light of my top pick. That was Dance To Bristol. She had won FIVE STRAIGHT races, but even more impressive was that she had finished first or second in FIFTEEN of her sixteen career starts....that is consistency. I also liked the fact there were several who appeared to want to run forwardly and she was a stalker who finished strongly. The race opened just as I thought with four of them dueling up front. Dance To Bristol was fourth between horses, but as they hit the turn she had to hit the breaks and the rider appeared to come out of the saddle briefly as he jerked the reins. That can't be good. But she quickly recovered and moved through to be fourth as heads turned for home. The problem now was that she was behind the wall of horses with a furlong to go and if she was taken outside, the switch in paths, and then the wide trip would probably cost her the race. An opening appeared in the two path and her rider - her regular rider from her Maryland base I might add (which was another key to selecting her) asked her to shoot through. Now she was in full race mode with dead aim on the leader. The only question was could she run her down in time. It was oh-so-close, but I truly was not worried as she appeared to be much the best through that final 16th of a mile. It was officially a PHOTO finish, but I knew I'd won. With my double investment I would cash out with nearly twent buckeroos, and had finished the day a perfect 3-for-3. By winning the three races in a row today, that meant that since the third race at Saratoga on Sunday I had won with THIRTEEN of my last SEVENTEEN selections! That, is some serious handicapping no matter how you slice the pie!
July 31
Today marks the beginning of the third week of racing at Saratoga, and the final day of racing for the month of July. At the conclusion of today's races - and I had four selections I printed out all of my results and did the calculations as to how I am faring through four months of handicapping this summer. For today's races I was back to my "one win a day" with Hot Stones rallying to win going away in the second at 4/5 for the current leading rider Joel Rosario. I had the leading trainer, Todd Pletcher in the opener and in the final of my four selections. They didn't even hit the board :( My other selection, a Saratoga Handicapper 40% Club play for trainer Al Stall was a dismal 7th and last in the third race. My numbers for Saratoga are really off from my overall numbers; in fact if you take out the Saratoga selections my summer totals jump up to 33%. Big rebound in August?
August 1: New Month - Happy Birthday To Me!
Today I celebrated my birthday with a BIG win in the feature, the John Morrissey. My BEST Bet of the Day was on Saginaw who was 10-for-14 last year and had won all three starts this season, but somehow the crowd sent him off as a distant second choice at better than 5/2. He romped in the off-going and paid a healthy 7.40, yielding a return to me of nearly $75......a winning day for sure, despite only one win out of four selections. I nearly scored in the final when Awakino Cat, #1 on the outside, JUST missed in a photo finish!
August 2
Good news.....I broke out of my "one-win-a-day" mode by scoring twice! The bad news was that the runner I liked the best on the day didn't hit the board and the two that won were favorites. Still, in spite of all that I finished a very good 33% wins on the day and NEARLY broke even - a good day by Saratoga 2013 standards! In the opener I had tabbed Michael Maker / Ken & Sarah Ramsey's Kiss of Thunder to win. Didn't hurt my confidence that the meet's leading rider, Joel Rosario (who has enjoyed phenomenal success with these connections going all the way back to Gulfstream - and including a record breaking meet at Keeneland for all three of them!). He was mid pack in fourth behind a quick front-runner. When he asked for run Kiss of Thunder went four wide to swoop up to the leaders. Meanwhile my second choice, at 4/1 rode the rails and got the jump on the leader. No problem as Rosario drove home in mid-stretch to win going away! Nearly $30 for the win!
In the second I backed first-time starter Groupthink out of the Chad Brown barn. Man, he was hammered down to 3/5 and broke slowly. Quickly he was fifth and in a 5 1/2 furlong 2yo sprint, that's the kiss of death unless you are really talented. He was lucky to get second. My "best" of the day was in the fifth where Chad Brown sent out Sapphire Blue. She exited a KEY race and was well clear of the show horse; was coming off a layoff, a key Brown angle, and had Javier Castellano on board. Trailed the field down the backside.....so far that she wasn't even in the TV picture. That's never good. Rallied belatedly to be a non-threatening fifth. Sigh...... The 6th was a listed stakes going 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf and I liked Madame Giry who was 2-for-2 over the course. She broke from the rail and tracked the dueling front-runners as I had anticipated. But could not catch the speed of the speed, my third choice who won and paid over $9. In the 7th Italian Rules had competed in stakes races out west and just looked like he laid over this $25K claiming field. He finished dead last.....no wonder he was plunging in class. My final bet was in the 8th where were were back on the inner course and I was back behind a Ken & Sarah Ramsey runner. Major Marvel was my preferred choice of the entry, and the other half eventually scratched. I was a little worried when Javier Castellano took him right to the lead - became even more worried when the half mile was posted in :46 and change. But as he separated himself farther and farther from the field entering the turn I began to feel more confident. When I observed he was under a vigorous hand ride and the other jockeys had already gone to their whips I knew I was home free! WHOOO HOOOO a second winner on the day! Tomorrow is Whitney Handicap Day and I have what I think are some solid selections for the day!
August 3 When I handicapped the Saturday, Whitney Invitational card, I found my "Best" of the day in an early claiming race. The fourth race was a claiming event, commonly called a "beaten" claimer because of the conditions. Today's race was for runners who have not won three races or for a $20K claiming tag. Quantity won two of three turf events when racing for a $50K tag last year, but had not run since December. His three wins on the turf over-qualified him for this spot so he was in for the $20K tag, which again he was over-qualified for, having won for more than double the price. But, the layoff was of concern to some I suppose.....not me! He was trained by Chad Brown who is a Saratoga 40% Club member with runners coming off a 90+ day layoff (winning 45% of those!). Add in his go-to rider Javier Castellano and I thought he looked TONS the best. So I tripled the investment! He sat near the back, made his move wide on the turn and was flying at the finish. He caught the leaders inside the sixteenth pole and drew off under a hand ride. He went off at a very generous 7/2 and paid $9.30. The triple investment returned $69.75 to ensure a winning day at the Spa!
My next bet was another turf event, and as I wrote my analysis I listed 12-With Exultation as my top pick, coming out of the Christophe Clement barn. But as I started writing about my second choice, Gimme Credit, and wrote "...is a 13-time turf winner, including three times here at Saratoga.." I realized I was ignoring one of handicapping principles: TURF WINNERS WIN TURF RACES! So I flipped the order and put 'Credit on top. Like Quantity he laid off the pace, rallied wide and caught the leaders just outside the sixteenth pole. He was part of a five-horse-calvary charge to the wire, but as they got inside the final fifty yards it was clear (to me) that he had the most momentum and would be first on the wire. It was officially a "photo finish" but Hall of Fame announcer Tom Durkin called him the winner, and I clearly saw him first. It was confirmed minutes later and he too paid a nice price - $9.20. I only had the minimum on him, but still I received over $20 for the selection! Two-for-two! That's a rare thing to say this summer! The final four selections were disappointing. Todd Pletcher sent out Chisholm as a debuting two-year-old, almost automatic at Saratoga. And I knew I'd get a good price on him because Dunkin Bend had been four plus clear of the show horse in his debut and was certain to be bet down. Rightfully so, he ran away with the race while chisholm was a well beaten fifth. Joe's Blazing Aaron looked to be the lone speed in the 8th, a nw3x AOC event. He was, but rider Joel Rosario couldn't slow him down and he carved out :22 and change, then a wicked :45 and change pace going 8 1/2 furlongs. Nothing left for the stretch - 6th at 9/2. In the two feature races I had the favorites.....Laugh Out Loud made a bold move at 7/5 in the DeLa Rose on the turf, but flattened out, third. And Fort Larned was the 3/2 favorite in the Whitney. My worst nightmares came true when Todd Pletcher's lightly raced Cross Traffic repelled his bid and wired the field. Just as Graydar had done in the Grade 1 Donn - and I KNEW it would happen, but failed to capitalize. The only negative to the day - I was 2-for-6 and profited nearly $30 at Saratoga - was that I decided to bet some races based on online handicappers and lost my profit for the day.....but I'm not counting those against MY handicapping - bad decision to "play for fun."
August 4
The "one-day-a-win-at-Saratoga" continued today, sigh.....but at least it was a prime time play. And the overall win percentage was saved by two plays on the Del Mar card - both of which were wins. At Saratoga I had minimum bets in the first two races on the turf. Lost both and in both Chad Brown maidens beat me. In the opener I listed Calm Pacific as my third choice at 10/1; she won at ELEVEN-to-One! Wow. In the second his filly was 6/1. In the fifth I scored my lone winner on the day; it was a maiden two-year-old sprint. Yep, it was Todd Pletcher again. But this time I was pretty smart! The other trainers were a combined 17-for-288 with first-time starters and Mr. Todd was an amazing SIXTY-TWO for 199. I was frankly surprised that I got 4/5 in a five horse field! Romped home by daylight and I cashed for nearly $40! I had a Chad Brown runner in the 6th....of course this is the one he lost, third in a 3-way photo at 3/1. Then Indian Spendor was a solid price play at 3/1 when I doubled the bet. He was 2nd off the shelf for Jason Servis (62% win angle, 44.77 ROI). Led late, but nailed in the final strides, second again. In the Grade 1 Amsterdam I REALLY thought Delauney would bounce back and dominate after his troubled Iowa Sprint. He dueled to the top of the lane, but when Rosie Napravnik asked for him to kick on, he went evenly....sigh. In the finale I thought Tahoe Lake looked best, but didn't have a lot of confidence. Should have passed as my second choice won. Out to Del Mar.....In their opener one of my favorite runners from the winter, Blues and Silver showed up. He was a terrific front-running win machine in the claiming ranks. Gary Stevens had the mount and he was quickly loose on the lead. But after a :22 and change and then wicked :45 and change splits I was certain he'd be mowed down by the closers. But Stevens just hand rode him to the wire, clear by daylight! Didn't fool anyone in the crowd though as he was 2/5 when they left the gate. Much the same in the second where Awesome Baby had been blazing the track in the morning for his debut today. The two-year-old bounced out of the gate on top and never looked back. At least I got back close to $20 on that one. This win made me 3-for-9 on the day, a solid 33%. Last day of the week's racing tomorrow and I have several plays at the Spa.
August 5
The "one-day-a-win-at-Saratoga" continued.......wait a minute, isn't that what I said yesterday? Yes, and it was a frustrating day of handicapping (as well as overall, but that's another story for another day). Today was "one of those days" that I knew, I JUST KNEW when I made my bets this morning that it was destined to be trouble. Not that I didn't have confidence in my selections, but I just had that uneasiness that comes when you make a solid selection and a little voice is saying, "it isn't what it appears to be." It all came true in the first two races, especially the second of my selections and it went downhill from there...... In my first bet of the day Countercyclical went off as the 9/5 favorite, made a big move like he was going to roar right by and couldn't, second. But what set the stage was with my LONE WIN.....On Saturday's card Todd Pletcher had entered King Cyrus and had Chisholm on the AE list. I picked King Cyrus as a double bet and said I'd triple the bet if Chisholm. And Saturday morning when I handicapped today's card, there both of them were again. So, I felt if Chisholm didn't run Saturday he was worth at least the same investment and if King Cyrus scratched to let him run, then today's race must be his intended spot and I'd triple the bet on him. Well Chisholm ran Saturday and faltered badly to be fifth. So when I made the bets for today, I changed my bet and only doubled the bet..........yes, as you can see at right, not only did he win, but he went off at a juicy 2/1, very unusual for a Pletcher debut runner. Sigh.... Though I smiled and shook my head in resignation and thought, "go figure," I should have known what was about to unfold. In the 4th Hoeboken Joe was an obvious choice and the crowd sent him off at 7/5. Wide rally, no better than third. In the 6th I took a shot with Can't Explain. I knew that if she ran according to her more recent races she'd be a longshot at best, but if she ran back to her races last summer here she'd be an overlay. She was a good 9/2, but ran to her recent form, fifth. In the 8th I was CERTAIN I'd made a good selection for my "BEST" of the Day. Not only did Apropos standout over the field, but her loss two back came to a horse that I researched and discovered had been just dynamite going back to the beginning of the year. It made her look all the more stronger. The crowd made her the 7/5 choice and she made a big run at the dueling front runners as they spun out of the turn.....then flattened out to be a dull 5th. Really? In the ninth it played out nearly as I saw it; Mystical Star, at a good price (and I again took a shot at the upset with a double investment) sat just off a moderate pace, inherited the lead turning for home, but then what I didn't see was one of the closers rallying into slow fractions and blowing right my pick....third. In the finale Starsilouette was a standout. She had won four straight over the turf and then lost last out in an off-the-turf stakes. The drop back into starter-optional claiming class, the fact she loves the distance (11/5-0-2), and getting Javier Castellano back on board just added to the appeal. She was sent off as the 6/5 favorite and was flat from the get-go.....sixth. Wow...... Glad to have the day off tomorrow to recover before getting back on track. Looking forward to Saturday's feature, the Grade 2 Fourstardave and Wise Dan running!
August 7
The "one-day-a-win-at-Saratoga" tradition continued today, but almost didn't! I backed a Todd Pletcher runner in the opener, and because it was on the turf I got a nice price - 6/1! But he seemed to struggle over the turf before finally getting some energy in mid-stretch. In a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint that's too late to do any damage. I had the 3/5 lone speed favorite in the second, the Claramount Stakes. The four rivals were all turning back from route races and looked to track the sprinter from mid-pack, leaving him an unpressured lead. But as soon as they broke and the #1 stalked him through swift fractions I knew it was over. The only way Marriedtothemusic would wire this field would be an unpressured lead. Sure enough, when heads turned for home the turn-back runner blew by under a hand ride.....second. In the fourth Favorite Uncle was first off the claim for Michael Maker and Ken & Sarah Ramsey. But he lept at the start and was distanced quickly and then eased.....didn't even finish.....wow. Got my first and only win at the Spa in the 5th, an overnight stakes going a mile on the turf for NY breds......West Hills Giant was the overwhelming favorite at 3/5 and he tracked the 12/1 longshot leader into the stretch. Jockey Edgar Prado was saving ground all the way and held his spot on the rail as he came cruising up the inside. But right at the furlong marker the front-runner veered in and out causing West Hills Giant to nearly run into the fence and steady. He was fortunate to hold the place. And lucky for me he did! There was an inquiry and it was clear what had happened. Down came the price horse and up went my "one-a-day" winner at the Spa. I had looked at the Del Mar entries for today and wanted to play the Grade 2 Sorrento for two-year-old fillies. But I had not been blown away by the favorite and it seemed everyone had a different opinon on the race. So I passed. But Brad Free recommended a claiming event in the 3rd as his "BEST" of the day was the lone speed. But right away red flags went up when he mentioned the rider was Kayla Stra. Now she's good looking girl, but as a rider she (a) doesn't get live mounts and (b) when she does she always seems to find a way to NOT win. Free said she was on the LONE speed today and was LONG GONE. I thought, that sounds too easy to me, so I passed. Sure enough, she rated off another rider who took advantage and wired the field. WOW. But I did play the 4th. It was a maiden special for two-year-old fillies going a mile on the turf. Clenor had been third in a European stakes last out and today was running against North American maidens. Free went so far to say she deserved a spot in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf! She was WAY back early, but came flying home to win under a hand ride, distancing herself from the field through the final 16th! WHOOO HOOOO! August 8
0-for-4 today.....wow. The only good thing to report is that I had a bet in the 6th and missed making the bet because I was on the phone. He lost as well :(
August 9
Well, well, well......a WINNING Day at the Spa! Not without an asterisk, but I'll take the winning day! I had six selections from the ten races slated for the Friday card, but there were thunderstorms in upstate New York. As a result my top pick in the second - on the main track - scratched. In the 5th, 7th, 8th, and 10th my horses all scratched from the turf to the main move. That left me with just two picks on the day. The first selection on the surface would appear an automatic play - maiden two-year-olds, Todd Pletcher trainee.....duh. But wait a tic, today's 4th race was not a Maiden Special, which is where he runs his top quality stock. No, today's sprint was a maiden $35K claiming event. That's not even a high-priced maiden claimer. What's the deal? But as I have often said, you are either with Todd at Saratoga and Gulfstream, or you're not. If you try to guess when his maidens are going to win you will invariably miss some nice winners. So I stuck with my double investment on Forbidden Talent.
Johnny Velazquez hustled her out of the gate and she splashed home to a wire-to-wire win at nearly 2/1 odds. With only two plays on the day, and with this being the only added investment, I was guaranteed a winning day! In the ninth, the Alanda overnight stakes my pick, Moon Philly went off at 13/1! I thought for a while, maybe.........but she was an even fourth on the wire. Tomorrow is "Fourstardave Day" and features Wise Dan who should score at odds-on and is my "BET of the DAY!"
August 10: Fourstardave DayToday was the last "BIG" Saturday before teachers report back to school and a new work year begins. Normally that would be cause to reflect back on all the time off over the summer and savor what had been my favorite time of the year, being able to go to the races anytime I wanted. But not any more - I'm retired (and still "young," if not in calendar years in health and energy!) so my summer continues and my days off are ENDLESS! WHOO HOO! I had been looking forward to today for nearly two weeks as my top thoroughbred, Wise Dan was slated to run in the feature at Saratoga and I was going to be going "all in" on him. While, as you will soon see, that was a big part of the day's stories, probably the biggest story on the day was that I had ten, yes TEN second place finishes today. Any hope of having a big day of money-making went down the drain with that statistic. Several were nice price plays, and one was a PRIME TIME investment on defending Breeders' Cup champion Groupie Doll in her 2013 debut. Right away the tone was set, although I didn't realize it at the time. My first selection was at Monmouth where I had multiple graded-placed Speak Logistics who was dropping into non-winners of two allowance company. Obvious choice and he was 3/5....second. Wow. I ran third in my first selection at Saratoga and then 5th in my next Spa choice. Back-to-back seconds at first Calder, when my pick was bet down from 6/1 to 6/5 and then at Gulfstream where it was a rare non-win for Team Calabrese and trainer Kirk Ziadie who's winning at a huge 47% at Gulfstream. And the first hour of racing was completed when I was third at Ellis Park with the 9/5 second choice. Sigh...... Finally, in the winner's circle when Giant Cat's Eye blew by the leader at Monmouth to score as the 5/2 choice. Right back with my first winner at Saratoga when Where's Danny ran to his name. Into the far turn 'Danny was well back and nowhere to be found. As the two leaders opened up in the lane he finally began to surge. I didn't think he had time but in the final furlong he was FLYING and was up in the final 100 yards :) I went another 45 minutes without a winner when I was second at Arlington in a 2yo maiden special, back-to-back 6th place finishes at Calder and Gulfstream; and then two races I felt really good about I ran 6th and 7th. Stardust Lil was one of two for trainer Kelly Breen at Monmouth, and they were uncoupled. Stardust Lil was making her second start and his other horse was in her debut. Breen is 18% with first time starters and 47% with his second time maiden starters, like 'Lil. I was well beaten while his debut runner won by double digit lengths. And at Saratoga, Can't Catch Kate was no where to be found while my second choice won at better than 5/1. I then put back-to-back winners together. Dreaming of Atlantis at Gulfstream was coming off a layoff for Peter Walder - one of the more vocal trainers who was happy to leave Calder for Gulfstream - and he has 24% winners off a break; and he's winning a sharp 37% for the summer in Hallandale. She went right to the front in this six furlong sprint and was never in danger of being caught; although Bidham, who will always be remembered as my choice in the opener on Florida Derby Day two years ago and paid over $20, came running late to make it interesting at the wire. Then I had my first win at Ellis Park. At "the old Pea Patch" I had tabbed Fidgety Felon to take down this claiming event for runners who'd not won in 2013. Last time out he'd broke dead last, rushed up to contest the lead, opened up two lengths in the stretch and then was nailed late to be second. All that would be enough to make him the pick today, but on that day he was coming off a 13 month layoff! Even better reason to bet him; but he was a true "Horse-for-the-Course" at Ellis with a record of 9/6-2-1! He was the favorite, obviously and was 1-2 when they went to the gate. He pressed the leader into the turn and as they turned for home his odds dropped to 1-5. WOW. He blew by with authority and I cashed my triple investment, but didn't make a lot of money since he only paid $2.40. Back to the "almost won" pattern when Lucky James was flying late at Monmouth, second and then at Saratoga I had a winner......I was certain. Todd Pletcher, first time starter in a two-year-old maiden special. Duh. Sound of Freedom was hammered to 6/5 and the only question was getting out of the gate and getting to the front in this five and one half furlong dash. Right to the front he went. He had mild pressure from a longshot to the turn, then this 12/1 runner ratched it up a little. No problem, Sound of Freedom stepped on the gas and as heads turned for home he was drawing off. At the furlong marker he was at least four clear and being ridden confidently. I was already considering what I'd say on my video clip, and then here comes a 6/1 shot with momentum. I saw the danger and so did John Velazquez, but Sound of Freedom had no late surge and he was nailed inside the final 100 yards......second again - really? Can't even get a Pletcher FTS 2yo home? Sigh-squared! Right back at Saratoga I had the 3/4 favorite in Soul House - third, and he frankly was lucky to hit the board. And at Ellis Capetown Rebel was 4th at 7/2. This day is NOT unfolding as I'd seen it going! But then my luck turned. It was the 7th race at Gulfstream Park, a non-winners-of-3-lifetime claiming event (see, as I often say, you NEVER know where the next winner will come from!). When I had handicapped the race, at first glance I saw a couple of runners that I liked, but nothing that leaped off the page at me. I checked the DRF handicapper's analysis....and just a quick sidebar on him: the regular DRF guy for South Florida is Mike Welsch. I don't put a lot of stock in his selections, but I do acknowledge he has good insight into some gems of handicapping that sometimes I miss. Well, he's at Saratoga for the summer and there's a new guy I've never heard of who's doing the analysis for both Calder and Gulfstream. So with that said, I checked for his comments and he liked the #1 horse, Cars and Trucks. He had been one I'd considered and the analysis pointed out two angles that I also liked - this guy had won over the Gulfstream turf previously; and coincidently that race was his only other effort against restricted claimers (a nw2L).....he'd won that day with a career best Beyer. Still, I thought I might add him to my list and then I noted that Cars and Trucks was 12-1 on the morning line! AND he was the DRF guy's "BEST" bet of the day. Ok, at that price and he's willing to hang that tag on him, I'm in - in fact, I thought, I'll go in for double the investment!!!!! So the 6th at Gulfstream goes official and minutes later I look up at the board and with 19 minutes to post Cars and Trucks is the 8/5 favorite! WHAT THE????? Immediately I had two thoughts - maybe this horse is not such a big secret, and as such I should up the investment with that kind of early betting activity. But I decided I'd wait before betting to see how the action went. With ten minutes to go he'd floated up to 4/1. So now my thinking is, that was all "early money" of some guys thinking they've got something, and he's taken enough action to be a more serious win contender than his 12/1 program odds, but he's not a "BIG" bet down worthy of increasing my bet. I head to the windows and put down my double investment. They break out of the gate and immediately he's on the front end, all alone. Better still as they spin out of the clubhouse turn he's walked them through a :25 and change opening quarter. This is great! A longshot comes to pressure him, but the rider lets out a little and opens up two quickly again. The half mile flashes up in a pokey :50 and change. Things are really looking good at this point. As I've said before, when betting a front runner there are four stages of events that must happen.....first, it would seem obvious, you have to win the break and be on the lead - CHECK; second, you need to be comfortably ahead on the turn without having asked for run yet, CHECK; third, on the turn you have to maintain your lead through the turn and as you head for home, CHECK; fourth, in order to hold off the late runners, and trust me, they will almost always be coming, you have to have a spurt at the head of the lane where you open up on the field....then it's a question of hanging on to the wire. As they turned for home Cars and Trucks did spurt free and opened up three lengths. In fact I could tell the jock had not really asked him yet. But in the final furlong they were flying at him.....a lot of momentum, but it was too little, too late, he'd stolen it! WHOOO HOOOOO! Cars and Trucks had closed at nearly 4/1 and paid a juicy $9.40 - with my double investment I was cashing for nearly $50! Now we're talking!
Less than ten minutes later they were loading into the gate in Chicago for Arlington's 6th, a Maiden Special turf contest. I liked the entry, but specifically I liked the 1a, Bee Home Soon. Last time out he had run a good third in OPEN Maiden Special company. Two things were positive about this relative to today.....(a) that was his first try going long, and on the turf - a good chance that he'd run an improved race in his second route/turf try; and (b) that third was in OPEN company looked even better considering that today's race was a STATE-BRED Maiden Special, a very subtle class drop. As the second half of the entry he was breaking from the outside, but as the gates sprung open he shot to the lead. His odds were 7/2 and I had visions of a re-run of the Cars and Trucks race! As they rounded into the backstretch and ran up what is termed "the woods" (a series of trees which shields the view of the runners from the grandstand) a 9/2 shot came up to him and insisted on the lead. The rider was so clever on Bee Home Soon; he didn't get into a duel, but conceded the lead, dropped back and moved outside that one for a clear path through the lane. As they came out of the far turn he accelerated past that one and was clear into the lane. He, like Cars and Trucks, opened up on the field! But at the sixteenth pole the late runners were gaining quickly, but not fast enough and I'd scored with a price horse again! WHOOO HOOO! I had doubled the investment and when prices were posted at $9.00 for a win bet, I was going to cash for $45. The two win bets over the last ten minutes would now lead to a cash-in of nearly $100! I'm back in the game! I really liked Summer of Fun. She was a lightly raced filly who had just missed in the Grade 3 Jessamine at Keeneland as a two-year-old, then went to the Breeders' Cup and was a fast-closing third, losing by a length and a half to close out her 2-year-old season. She opened her sophomore campaign with an easy win in a Gulfstream allowance spot, then just missed as the even money favorite in the Hill Top Stakes on the Preakness undercard. Today she was coming off a two month break but had had been working lights out with a best-of-53 bullet work over the main track and a near bullet work over the Saratoga turf course. I was surprised she was 8/5, an inflated price that I was happy to take! But the outside filly quickly jumped in front before they hit the far turn and I had visions of the front-end upset.....loose on the lead in an opening quarter of :25 and change, a half mile in :50 and change. Even a filly who was as talented as Summer of Fun would have a hard time making up ground into those fractions. And she was fifth heading into the far turn. She accelerated and began to pick off horses, but could she get to the winner, who had the rail and was uncontested while Summer of Fun was going four wide around the turn? As soon as the straightened out she found another gear and quickly inhaled the front runner by the time they reached the furlong marker. She was asked for run, but not pushed for her best as she coasted to the wire over a length clear! WHOO HOOO! Another win at Saratoga, and another near $30 for me! It helped soothe the Groupie Doll loss. In the Gulfstream feature I tripled the bet on a Louisiana shipper who'd just won a $100K stakes like today's feature, the Ta Wee Stakes. She was a nice 7/2, but was trapped behind horses to deep stretch and got out too late, third. I had Joe Bravo on the turf at Monmouth with the 7/5 favorite and he had her flying late, too late - SECOND, again! Next up was the second at Del Mar and I had doubled the bet on Bajan. She was a two-year-old filly who had debuted against COLTS and was second, missing by less than a length. That alone made her a worthy investment, but the colt who had beat her has since come back to win the Best Pal Stakes and the show finisher has come back to win his maiden in his next start! So the "drop" into a race restricted to fellow-fillies made her obvious. She rated off the pace and made her move on the 5/1 leader heading into the lane. She collared her comfortably and it appeared to me that rider Rafael Bejarano knew he had the race and was riding with confidence. But then the other filly said she wasn't going down without a fight and IT WAS ON! The two dueled the length of the stretch and it was sooooo much like the Ellis Park finish earlier. The first three replays they showed I couldn't tell. But at Del Mar they have a shutter-cam right on the finish line and it's a good close-up......my filly, Bajan had the narrowest of nostrils on the wire first! Whew! I cashed for nearly $30. And now it was time for THE RACE.....the Grade 2 Fourstardave. Without question Wise Dan was the best horse. In sixty-seven past performances showing for his rivals there were seven triple digit figures, earned by two of the horses and one of those scratched! Five had never earned a 100 figure. By comparison, Wise Dan had runn 100 or better in TEN CONSECUTIVE RACES! Now, at the time I was handicapping that made him a clear standout, much like Groupie Doll. But as I was getting ready to bet, I had the Groupie Doll experience swirling in my mind. And what about ALL THE SECOND PLACE finishes today.....is this the day when Wise Dan goes down, runs second at the "Graveyard of Favorites" as Saratoga is called? The two main concerns were this - he was carrying 129 pounds today. He'd won the Grade 2 Firecracker carrying 128, so the actual weight wasn't a concern, but he was giving 10 to 15 pounds to all of today's rivals; the second concern was he'd drawn the #1 post. In the Firecracker the other jockeys had ridden as much to BEAT Wise Dan as to win the race, and he'd had to push through a narrow opening on the hedge - literally ON the hedge as both he and jockey John Velazquez had scratches on them from the hedges - before winning. You knew the other riders would be looking to pin him down again. And to add to this, the one horse left who had earned triple Beyers had done so in his past two races while racing uncontested on the lead.....and he looked loose on the lead today. Nearly always when a "big horse" goes down it is due to some longshot getting loose on the lead and stealing the race, or the big favorite can't make his run on the leaders because of the pace scenario. Lots of things could be pointed to as reasons why Wise Dan would lose. But in spite of it all, I stood by my decision.....$100 to WIN! As I saw the race, thinking like John Velazquez, I would know the outside horse, King Kressa WOULD be on the lead and would cross over. So my plan would be to ask Wise Dan for just a touch more early speed once King Kressa crossed over and establish a spot just outside of him as we hit the far turn. The gates opened, King Kressa crossed over, and if you watch the race you can almost "see" Johnny V thinking this; but instead the runner just outside of him said, "no way" and pinned him on the rail. I could see the wheels turning and right away I thought that I'd let this guy go on, press King Kressa and I'd slip out right behind him. As they turned down the back stretch you could see Velazquez squeeze the reins to let that one go on and he was going to move outside of him, but quickly the #7, Lea - the second choice, close ranks and said, "no way, you aren't coming out here!" Uh oh, he's pinned on the rail, again! Still, this is why he's a Hall of Fame rider. No panic, he knew he had the best horse. As they moved to the turn he accelerated so he was right behind King Kressa and was waiting for the two pressers to float wide into or coming out of the turn. If you watch the replay from NBC you can see from a slightly different angle this is exactly what happened. They went wide, a seam opened and in a flash Wise Dan was clear on the outside of King Kressa and ready to move. Velazquez asked for run, and as I watched it live it seemed for about half a furlong Wise Dan, like Groupie Doll was NOT accelerating! Uh oh, the 129 pounds, the loose on the lead front-runner.....my worst nightmare, all coming to be a reality. But just as quickly Wise Dan began gaining with every stride and Johnny V had not even raised the whip. As he drew on even terms - mind you he was NOT on the lead yet - he looked not once, but twice under his shoulder for somebody else coming. He apparently knew he was home free. No threats, he hand rode the champion to the wire and was clear by a measure length and change without having to ask for his best. The trip, the momentary "is he not going by" had left my hands and heart trembling :)
In a nice little side story......it is always my routine when I'm at Calder (and at Gulfstream) there is this one guy who I like to make my late bets with. He is exceptionally efficient and never makes a mistake as I rattle off future bets at different tracks and later races. Trust me, it's happened before where I call out a track, race, and bet only to find that I didn't get the right track, or race, or bet, or any combination there of. But this guy, he's the best. So, I'd made my late bets, starting with the Wise Dan $100 wager with him. After the payouts were posted for Wise Dan I went to the paddock and filmed the recap video you see above. As I came back into the building I took out my winning tickets - the two Del Mar tickets, the Summer of Fun ticket, and the Wise Dan ticket. I thought, "my man" always punches my tickets for me, but he never gets to see if I cash or not. So I went back to his window and gave him the tickets......the winners added up to well over $200, so I took my three big bills, posed for a picture and headed for home. I had not done the math (always feel like it's a jinx, go figure!), but I was pretty sure that where I was on the day was somewhere around even and I needed to win one or two of my late races. I also was a little below 30% on the day, so the odds were, I WOULD win at least one to get "my average" win percentage. Instead it was one last "Woulda-Coulda-Shoulda" story for my potential profit. I had three added money investments out of the four bets......6th at 7/2 (potential $45), 6th at 13/1 (potential $65), 2nd, yes again, the TENTH on the day, at 8/5 (potential $37), and th at 5/2 (potential $35). Take any two of these and I am a solid winner for the day. So many "ifs and buts" on the day. I COULD have had a big day, but basically gave back the cash I'd won with my Mom and sister last weekend. I'll remember it as a great day by cashing ten tickets and hitting the Wise Dan race with $100 to win and getting a return of nearly $150!But I was the winner with my BET of the DAY! And here's the best part.......In the early wagering Wise Dan was 1-9, as he should be. I figured he'd probably float up to 1-5 because some "smart guys" would figure with the weights and the post, today might be a good day to bet for value.....I mean after all, Groupie Doll went down, soooooo. And sure enough with ten minutes to post he was 1/5. Ok, I thought, that's a fair price. Then he went to 1/4. Now that might not seem like much, but for a guy with $100 to win, that is a difference of cashing $120 vs. $125, and while not much, to me that was a nice "free" $5 for betting the reigning Horse-of-the-Year! I was smiling as they loaded into the gate. But as they moved to the far turn and Wise Dan's odds flashed up he had somehow floated up to 2/5! How is this possible in a five-horse field? The payout was $2.40 and instead of making $110 on my investment, I cashed for $140! That is a HUGE overlay! WHOOOO HOOOOO!
August 11
I have good news and I have bad news.....but the day finished on a good note. In the second today a Todd Pletcher debut filly was listed at 6/5 on the morning line and she just looked, on paper, like the real deal. I first typed in a triple investment when I was writing my analysis on Friday but then changed it to a "Prime Time / Best of the Day" pick, the full $20. Wow was she impressive! She ran away from the field and was two-tenths off the track record. Mark down Sweet Whiskey on your "Watch List" for two-year-old stakes in the fall, and maybe even the big stakes in the spring for sophomore fillies. I was REALLY impressed! I missed in the third when Gritty Gal did not make an easy lead and tried to rate off the pace.....disappointed by fading to a well beaten 7th. I backed another Pletcher runner in Frogman Mel in the 4th. I wrote how Pletcher is dynamite with debut runners at 31% winners, but even better with second time maidens - 37%....third today. I wrote that in the fifth She's Stones Sis appeared to be a "free bingo square" in the multi-race wagers. I even wrote only about her, no alternatives. Yet I only backed her with a triple investment....what was I thinking? She was dazzling after having to duel through the opening half mile.....nearly $30 on the winning ticket!
The feature races today were the Grade 2 Adirondack for juvenile fillies and the Grade 2 Saratoga Special for juvenile colts. As I told Kim afterwards, if I was the owner of the odds-on favorite in the Adirondack, Fiftyshadesofgold, I would fire the rider if not downright shoot him. Fiftyshades had won both starts by finishing from off the pace and there was ample speed to set her up today. True to form three fillies dueled on the front end from the moment the gates opened. Fiftyshades sat right behind them, saving ground down the backside on the rail. It was SOOOOO obvious that the rider had a ton of horse under him. As they came through the far turn did he move gradually outside to give her clear run? I mean duh, everyone knows when you're on the best horse, the horse that is TONS the best, you give up a little ground to make sure YOU don't get the horse beat! No! He hugged the rail and waited for a seam. The three front-runners continued to do battle as they straightened into the lane. Not to late to swing out.....nope he dives to the rail! There appeared to be the smallest of seam, and even veteran professional horses are reluctant to ride the rails, much less through a narrow opening. No sooner did he ask her then the seam closed. Still, with a filly like his he might have had enough horse to swing out in the final furlong, but NO! He insisted on hugging the rail and for a moment it looked like he was going to be lucky. The inside speed drifted off the rail into the 2-path. Fiftyshades made her move, but immediately the front-runner ducked in and slammed her into the rail. Sigh, it was all over. It was of little consequence that the winner was DQ'd.....Fiftyshades was a very troubled third. Then, to add insult to injury, in the Saratoga Special I ignored my own mantra......I had seen Todd Pletcher's Corfu win his maiden; yes I had him that day, but he was life and death to hold on going 5 1/5 furlongs. He looked to get cooked in a speed duel today, especially going 6 1/2 furlongs. I hear you........don't tell me you didn't bet the Pletcher two-year-old! I didn't. He wired the field, holding on by a despearate nose......and what's worse, the payoff was an amazing $15.00. My standard Pletcher bet is $10 - do the math ..... $75.00......missed it. :( But the day ended on a high note. I wanted to play the Grade 2 John C. Mabee from Del Mar, and I wanted to bet Tiz Flirtatious. In her last she just missed beating one of the best turf mares in the country in Marketing Mix. That one had come back to solidly trounce the boys so you know Tiz Flirtatious was "live." AND she was Brad Free's "BEST" of the day. But then I saw that Lady of Shamrock, one of my favorite turf fillies was running as well. And she'd won here last summer in the Grade 1 American Oaks. Hmmmm. I decided to hold off on making the play. I watched the DRF handicapping video and read online, and it seemed to be a near virtual consensus that Tiz Flirtatious was the one to beat. So, I went with my initial gut feeling and bet her. As I watched the replay on TVG after the evening's television programs they were showing the post parade and the rider was my old nemisis, Julian Leparoux. If anyone could get her beat in a five horse field, it was him! But the race shape was pretty clear. The #5 would go to the lead; Tiz Flirtatious would be tracking, and the other two would be closing. No brainer. But when they broke out of the gate it was Lady of Shamrock tracking and Tiz Flirtatious in dead last! Seriously? The pace was a crawl - :26.6, 52.2, and three quarters in a glacial 1:17 and change. Normally good horses come home in :12 for the final furlong. Tiz Flirtatous FLEW by in a :10 flat final quarter without taking a deep breath. It was an amazing run, and a devastating win! WHOOO HOOOO! One last day of racing tomorrow and then we begin looking forward to Arlington Million Day on Saturday!
August 12
A disappointing day after a "feel good" weekend of racing. In my first selection, the 3rd, it was a turf sprint and I thought the closer Mystic Love had a great chance to run down the speed if there was a duel. There was a blistering duel and she was far back, and stayed far back simply running around the track at 7/1. Next up everyone thought Leroy Jr. was an obvious choice to break his maiden - his long layoff was actually a good thing as trainer Chad Brown excels with those. Leroy was 7/5 and was a belated 4th, never really a threat to the top ones. I finally got my "ONE WIN AT SARATOGA" when Due Diligence was an impressive first time starter for Brown, sprinting on the turf. Not that I would have made much money anyway since she was the heavy 3/5 chalk. But of the five investments on the day she was the ONLY one that I had the minimum on. Wow....... In my next bet Hello Lover got the set-up I thought she'd get, but went a little too wide on the turn for home. If you look at the 3-way-photo at right you can see how just that little bit of a wide trip probably cost her the race. In my "best" of the day, the featured "Kid Russell" stakes, I thought Candyman E would be one of the short priced favorites. Every time he came off a layoff he'd run sensationally with huge figures, including his only two triple digit Beyer figures. I tripled the bet. Man was I surprised when he left the gate at a HUGE 9/1 price! But he ran very well, and had his sites set on the front-runner from his tracking 2nd place position. I thought "I'm about to make a BIG score....9/1 x $15 - over $100!" But he could not catch the front runner and was a clear second. It was one of those pieces of "Great Handicapping" without any cash to reward my efforts. Sigh.......
August 14
I had several selections for today's card, but when I went online to make my wagers this morning I saw that most of the turf races were "OFF" the inner course. And with that, three of my runners were scratched. That left me with just three investments on the day, but one of them was my "BEST BET" - a Todd Pletcher 2-year-old debut runner! In the fourth race there were as many as four who looked to contest the early pace. That left Asiya sitting just off the pace waiting to sweep by and score easily. At least that was the way I saw it unfolding. Couldn't have come closer if I'd scripted it! The pace duel ensued, Asiya sat right behind them until they spun out of the turn heading for home and "ROMPED" as Tom Durkin called it! WHOOO HOOO! Doubled the bet to score for better than $20. Then a most remarkable event.....It was the very next race, the fifth. It was a Maiden Special for two-year-olds, and like always, I looked for the Todd Pletcher runner. There she was on the rail....duh, easy to handicap these races. Pletcher, especially when he's got Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez on board is a near automatic win machine with these races. Look at his stats, over 30% wins and nearly a $2 return for every $2 bet. The only problem is that the crowd has caught on and they are almost always the odds-on favorite. As you can see from my analysis, I made her the "BEST" of the day by tripling the investment.........
Yet, somehow the crowd did NOT make the Pletcher runner, Cynical Storm the favorite! He was even higher at post time than his morning line. And even more astounding, the 3/2 favorite wasn't even in my top three! I thought 'Storm would wire them from the fence, but a 19/1 longshot beat him to the punch in the opening strides, so John Velazquez patiently held his ground into the turn. When that one weakened, he shot through and was quickly in front by two lengths. The favorite came running late, but it was too late! Officially a "photo finish" but it was clear that Pletcher debut runner had scored again! I was amazed and delighted to cash for better than $50!
August 15
Like what seems like the majority of the summer, I was disappointed again today with the results of my selections. I had planned to go to the races at Gulfstream but the weather was supposed to be bad. Then I got the past performances for Saturday's big Arlington Million Day so I decided to play the races at home while I analyzed them horse-by-horse; you can read my pre-race analysis and selections below. I lost my first two selections, both at Delaware. I guess this gives you good insight into how the day went when Jane Cibelli is winning 46% of her races at Delaware; I jump on board and the odds float from 7/2 to 6/1 and he's a dull fifth. Then I had the 6/5 favorite and was second. But I seemed to be making the start of a big day when Sugar Street was cleverly ridden by the leading rider at the Arlington meet, an apprentice no less. 'Street had the quickest pace figures, but he was taken off the pace then rallied down the middle of the course and drew off as MUCH the best at a nice 2/1. Todd Pletcher's Sneaky Blowout was 4th at 2/1 at Saratoga, but at least I was right in going against the favorite (who had disappointed for me last time out). That brought us to the 3rd at Arlington. My selection was Isle of Skye who seemed CLEARLY like he would be odds on as the lone speed of the race. His pace figures just towered over these. Yet through the betting he flucuated from 2/1 to 8/5 and eventually was sent off at 8/5, but as the second choice........Right out of the gate Isle of Skye assumed command and you could just tell by watching the action of the rider that he had a TON of horse underneath him and no one was gaining on him. The other riders all began scrubbing on their mounts as they spun out of the turn heading for home, but Isle of Skye had yet to be asked. When he was he responded and bounded away to win under wraps. The $5.40 payoff was a gift and I cashed for over $40. HERE WE GO! I thought....For the next two and a half hours I could not catch a break. I was third as the 6/5 favorite at Saratoga when a front runner walked through the first six furlongs. Fifth at Delaware at 3/1 with no apparent excuse. At Arlington I was fifth at 2/1 when again a front runner set SLOW fractions and wired the field. I was third in the feature at Delaware, the Unbridled Belle when AGAIN a front runner was allowed to lope along on a slow gallop. And finally I got a miserable ride on the 2/1 favorite in the feature at Saratoga, the West Point Stakes. Lubash was out to defend his title in that race and was stalking perfectly placed behind three dueling front runners. But as they spun out of the turn, and it was clear to everyone as Tom Durkin called it, the rider had a TON of horse, but he stayed inside to try and squeeze through on the rail. He tried, no where to go, tried again and there was little room but the horse was reluctant to go and he ended up a close 4th still screaming out to run....sigh.....
Finally I was back in the winner's circle when Slumber ran away with the 9th at the Spa. Bill Mott was bringing back this talented runner off more than a year layoff. But he looked just much the best on paper, if he was ready. He romped, and I won't be surprised if he shows up next in a stakes race. I went through another five race streak where I couldn't get anything home....3rd when I flattened out in the stretch at arlington; Dead aim on the leader at Del Mar and couldn't finish the job; wide at Saratoga after a slow break; made a bold move on the turn at Del Mar and hung; and then looked to be in perfect striking position over the Del Mar turf, but no stretch punch. Finally, in the finale at Del Mar I doubled the bet on a Bob Baffert class dropper. Stormin Lute had earned a BIG Beyer in his MSW debut and looked ready to graduate. I wondered by Baffert would drop him all the way to the bottom in this maiden claimer for a mere $20K. I wrote he'd either walk with it or finish up the track. Stormin Lute was sent off at 3/5 and rallied past all of them on the turn and drew off handily. Tomorrow I'm going out to Calder to bet my "BEST" of the day when Dayatthespa, a Grade 1 winner, runs in the featured state-bred $100K Yadoo Stakes at Saratoga. She should be a very short price, but decisive winner!
August 16Today was one of the best "feel good" days of the Saratoga meet so far. It all came down to one bet, one horse, and just the satisfaction of "being right." When I had handicapped the races for today I had six selections. Five of them were runners that I felt I had enough of an edge to invest in, but nothing special. But in the feature race today, the Yaddo Stakes I had a "BET of the Day." But, let's start back at the beginning. My first selection was in the second race, a maiden special for two-year-olds. There wasn't a Pletcher colt but I thought that Artemis Agrotera looked like a pretty solid investment. She was trained by Michael Hushion who wins with nearly a quarter of his debut runners, she had two bullet works and Joel Rosario was riding. My second bet was in the Yaddo, and that was on Dayatthespa. The Yaddo was a $100K state-bred stakes and Dayatthespa was a multiple graded stakes winner, including the Grade 1 QE II at Keeneland (where I'd had her on the weekend of Sue & Dan's daughter's wedding in Baltimore). Following that win she'd gone out west and was the 8/5 favorite in the Grade 1 Matriarch. But she had an awful trip and was given time off. She'd come back in a listed stakes in May, where she walked with it as my "Best" of the day; but then just missed in the Grade 3 Eatontown at Monmouth. Again a layoff, but today was her first step back, in a race where she should have a confidence builder. I thought she laid over the field. The field's highest lifetime Beyer was an 88; Dayatthespa had run an 89 three back and ever other race going back to April 2012 were all 90 or better. I made her my "BEST" and intended to bet $30 to win. But after not heading to the races on Thursday my plan was to make all my minimum bets online, but drive out to Calder and make my Dayatthespa bet live on track. From the moment I got up today I just felt she was going to dominate the race, so I upped the bet to $50. So I made the bets and headed out, leaving a little later than I'd planned. I sped down I-595 to the turnpike exit and the traffic was heavier than usual, a big dump truck was crawling in front of me and and car was trying to get into my lane; anyway, I missed the exit to get on the turnpike to Calder.....great, I thought, I'm going to miss the race and the bet! But I managed to get on Route 441.....heading the wrong way! Sigh.....Got turned around, on the turnpike and made it to the track with ten minutes to spare. I made my bet and pulled out my phone and watched the replay of the Artemis race. He WALKED with it, but at miniscule odds of 2/5! Still, I'll take the win! As I had walked into Calder I was certain that my "BEST" would be 1-9, but instead Dayatthespa was 1-5. My first thought was why wasn't she being bet? But then I was happy to get 20 cents on the dollar. But by post time she'd moved up yet another notch to 25 cents on the dollar. That was stealing in my book! Normally Dayatthespa is a front runner, but she doesn't have to have the lead. A longshot insisted on the lead so Javier Castellano rated her just off the pace. But the front runner was soon in front by open lengths and was setting a very slow pace - :25 and change for the opening quarter and :49.4 for the half. On the far turn Castellano made his move, but the front runner wasn't done. It appeared that Dayatthespa had plenty in the tank, but wasn't able to put the leader away. But then she found another gear and it was all over. She blew by and won motored down on the wire. WHOOO HOOOO! I got back nearly $15 in profit, which to me in this particular match-up of runners was a huge layover. I missed on the next three, when I watched the replays. But in the final race of the day I had backed Awakino Cat. He was a former stakes winner here in turf sprints. He'd been my pick when he last ran here and missed by the narrowest of noses, but today I knew he'd win. When I saw that more than half the field had scratched I was certain he'd win. He ran one of his "A" races today and blew the field away. But, unfortunately, like the first two winners he was a very short price. So I finished three-for-six on the day, an excellent handicapping day. And considering the "longshot" of the day paid $3.20 I was fortunate that the bottom line was nearly even. But the day will go down in my mind as the day I drove out to Calder to bet my US Grant on Dayatthespa and she justified my confidence by romping home as my "BET of the DAY!"
August 17: Arlington Million / Alabama Day
I headed out to Gulfstream today to enjoy the simulcast action from Chicago and Saratoga, as well as from three other tracks, while playing the live races at Gulfstream. It was an enjoyable day for me, but the start to the day sealed the bottom line and put just a bit of a damper on the overall day. Still, like so many days this summer I'll remember the day as a day I hit two of three "BET of the DAY" selections and nearly got my average with eleven wins overall. I walked into the "Silks Simulcast" room and made my first set of bets and then settled into my seat. My first selection was a double investment on a Todd Pletcher two-year-old debut runner at Monmouth. He was the 5/2 favorite when I bet, but by the time I'd got my personal TV set-up he was a LATE Scratch! I guess, as it turned out, I will take that as a win. Because for the next hour and a half it was 2nd-city all the time. At Saratoga I had Ideal Place in a turf sprint and Javier Castellano had the Chad Brown trainee flying on the outside, but wide. He came to the leader about 100 yards out but couldn't get by. As I watched it seemed to me that near the line Castellano had stopped riding, almost like he was checking. I thought, was the leader bearing out, knocking me off course? But as they showed the replay there wasn't an objection or inquiry and they led the winner into the winner's circle, took the photo and everything. But still, curiously the "Official" sign did NOT come on. Finally the "INQUIRY" sign came up. They showed the replay and sure enough, the winner bore out not once, but twice. The last time making a right turn directly into my horse's path! They looked at it over and over and I thought the issue was when it happened. I've seen these go both ways - on the one hand I've seen them come down for obvious interference; but other times I've seen the decision to let it go because it was so close to the finish line that the stewards decided it didn't affect the outcome..........Finally, "OFFICIAL" and I'm second to start the day. Oh well, he was a nice price play at 9/2 and it was a minimum investment. I headed out to the rail to watch the Gulfstream opener. Big Larr was the obvious choice at 3/5, but couldn't get by the front-runner.....2nd, again. I head inside and the second at Monmouth and Haywired is tracking the leader at 2/1. He's the only runner in the field who's met the par speed figure for this class....can't run down the leader in the lane......2nd, AGAIN. At Calder I was a solid 4th at 5/1 then 3rd at Saratoga - couldn't believe this one because it was a Pletcher debut 2-year-old; they ALWAYS win at the Spa! But he was allowed to go off at 2/1 - it's rare that the "live ones" are allowed to be a price like that. I KNEW I'd win the next race - live at Gulfstream I tabbed Team Calabrese's Distinctive Move in this nw2L sprint. Trainer Kirk Ziadie is winning an astounding 52% of his races, so this is a no brainer. I counted myself lucky he went off at 4/5. He dueled to the turn, then seized control, but here came a late runner! They dueled through the lane and I lost the lead, but came back......too late, 2nd AGAIN! As I walked in they were turning for home in the first stakes race on the Arlington Million card, the opener was the Straight Line Stakes at a one-turn mile. I thought Mongolian Saturday had a real shot to steal it at a price. As I walked in I see #3 - my horse - loose on the lead heading for home. He was two clear at the eighth pole......nailed in the final strides.......SECOND AGAIN! That's five seconds from my first seven selections. WOW. I was then off the board in four straight, three with double investments. This is looking like a L-O-N-G day I'm thinking. But finally, the Sense Angel swooped to the lead at Calder on the far turn and I got my first winner! FINALLY! And minutes later I scored again at Saratoga. And I enjoyed this win.......Now, as you read this you might think this sounds mean, but hear me out. I was sitting in the third row of simulcast carrels. The first two rows are VIP seating and they have their own personal waitress.
You know this can't go on all day, and I knew it as well. The only question was could I make up "enough" ground to get back to even for the day and/or get to 30% wins on the day. The "good news" was if I was going to make a run, the bigger bets and the "name / stakes races" were still ahead. The first pick on page two was another triple bet at Monmouth. Kingofalldiamonds looked MUCH the best on the Jersey shore turf. He was first-time tagged, first-time in 2-lifetime company. Jockey Paco Lopez is winning 38% for trainer Eddie Plesa. It all looks good to me. The 'King is blocked behind runners down the backside, can't get out for run....can't get out on the turn, but as heads turn for home a seam opens and he explodes to the lead without even being asked. WHOOO HOOO! Here we go now! I ran second AGAIN at Arlington when Nine Sixteen was on the lead the length of the stretch.....drifted out late and was caught on the wire - man, can't catch a front-running break! Now it was up to the 7th race at Gulfstream, the featured $100,000 Paseana Stakes, a six furlong sprint. I thought I was pretty clever picking late running My Pal Chrisy who was a multiple stakes winner routing. She'd been my top pick in the Grade 1 Princess Rooney on Summit of Speed Day at Calder at this distance. I had noted that day that in spite of not a single sprint showing in her pp's, she had a record of 4 wins from 7 starts at the distance. She was flying that day at nearly 25/1 and was a good third. So today I thought she'd mow them down. And there was an obvious front-runner in Capitalism At Risk who was an EIGHT-time winner at the distance and SEVEN-time winner here at Gulfstream. She was a consensus pick in the DRF. So, I'm thinking I'm going to get a nice score, I'm so smart. Instead My Pal Chrisy is the 3/5 favorite. As they hit the far turn I can tell the rider is just sitting on a powder keg, she is begging for run, but she's behind three horses duking it out on the lead. As they make their way midway through the turn the jock heads her to the outside, but then changes course! Smart guy, he sees the outside speed horse stopping and drifting wide.....Chrisy would have been five or six wide - instead he splits horses and is only three off the rail with a full head of steam. My Pal Chrisy dominates the field and races to victory. I was sitting in our Florida Derby finish-line box seat and had a great view of the race as I filmed it. Smiling at the win I check the video.....it didn't record. Really? Sigh......Can't even fully enjoy my first stakes winner :( I missed in the Hatoof Stakes at Arlington when My Option runs third as the 9/5 favorite. In Gulfstream's finale Blackstone looked to be loose on the lead but breaks behind the field and that's that - 7th at 2/1. Tiz a Homerun looks like he's ready for his third straight at Monmouth, but is an even 4th as the 6/5 choice for Paco Lopez. Now, it's time for my first "BEST" of the Day. I posted on Facebook three top choices on the day, and the first was in the first of the four big Arlington turf races, the $400,000 American St. Leger going a mile and 11/16ths over the lawn. I won this last year with my "BEST" on the card and I thought that European Dandino - ironically from the same connections as last year's winner Jackleberry - looked TONS the best. He was sent off at 4/5, which I thought was a more than fair price. From the start he was sitting a perfect trip, fourth on the inside saving ground. But when they hit the far turn I could tell that he wanted to get free for a run at the leaders, but was pinned in. This has happened so much to me this summer! They turn for home and he dives inside to split runners, the hole closes and he has to jerk on the reins steadying! REALLY???!!!!! He tries to move outside runners, but another horse is moving past and he can't get out! He pulls on the right rein hard and makes a right turn to go four wide, but we're already at the 16th pole! With a burst of speed, like he'd floored it on a sports car (like my cool Z!) Dandino blows by to win! YYYYEEEEESSSSSSSSS!
I posed for a self-portrait at my reserved seat (see at right) with my winning ticket and cashed for over $50! I missed at Calder with another front-runner who broke slowly and then won my for the fourth time on my second page of selections. It was the opener at Del Mar and Ginger Tap was my pick. I'd originally been torn between he and another runner on the rail. But I read Brad Free's comments, and he listed Ginger Tap as his third choice but said, "......Ginger Tap won't be a maiden much longer....." That stuck with me and when you looked at his pattern I thought he was solid. Debuted in a dirt sprint and was a decent fourth. Stretched to two turns and turf for the fist time and made a good run to finish close up and the place horse from that race came back to win not one, but TWO races in a row, the latest earning a 99 speed figure. I doubled the bet. Ginger Tap sat well back as the 3/2 second choice, but on the far turn the rider asked and he inhaled the field while going nearly six wide. He lost ground and was still second at the furlong marker but had all the momentum and swept by, then drew off with authority! Good call Mr. Mark! In the first of the co-features at Saratoga I'd originally made Boisterous my "Best" of the day at the Spa. It was the Grade 1 Sword Dancer and he'd looked impressive winning his first Grade 1 last out in the Man O'War. But then as I read the other handicapper comments and looked at it carefully I noticed that (a) it was his first Grade 1, so he wasn't an established runner at this class level; (b) he had never won at this distance - at 10 furlongs yes, but not at 12 furlongs of today's race; and (c) ALL of his best efforts came over courses that were "good" or "yielding" - NOT firm like today. I backed off my investment, but still put him on top. He went off at 9/5 and was threatening at the top of the lane, but flattened out to be 9th. Another good call on my part - I had looked at the winner, but he'd been beaten by Boisterous last out so I never would have bet him. I missed in the Grade 1 Secretariat at Arlington when my upset pick at 12/1 weakened late - I thought heading into the far turn I really had a shot...... Then I had a "feel good" win at Del Mar. One of my favorite riders is the very sexy Chantal Sutherland. She is such a looker and a top jockey. She was the "poster child" for Del Mar last summer when I centered my handicapping project there. I even built a page for her last summer, click here. But she retired abruptly shortly after the meet ended. Recently she'd come back to riding and I thought she had the right horse today in Meinertzhageni, a name I could not even begin to pronounce. The barn wins a high percentage with second time starters and she was off to a good start at the meet. But the horse broke slowly. Still, Chantal was patient and let him settle. She made her move on the turn, swung wide and had all the momentum. Ran right by the leaders in a good looking stretch run to win going away! That's my girl, horray Chantal! Ten minutes later it was time for my "BET of the Day" at Saratoga. It was the second of the three "Bests" I'd listed on Facebook. It was in the $600,000 Grade 1 Alabama Stakes going the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles on the main track. I had NOT been a fan of Princess of Sylmar on Kentucky Oaks Day. She was one of three Todd Pletcher runners that day, but she'd been a winner of several Aqueduct inner-track stakes races against lesser company. But, she took advantage of a hot pace meltdown and swept by to win and pay over $30. When she came back last time in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks here at Saratoga there didn't look to be nearly as strong a pace and I was all against her. It did stick in my head that Pletcher had said following the Oaks upset that they'd found out that regardless of the pace, her best run came when they let her sit back and come with a big late kick. I thought my Oaks pick, another Pletcher runner, the previously unbeaten (before the Ky Oaks) Unlimited Budget would prove she was the best sophomore filly in the CCA Oaks. But instead Princess of Sylmar blew by with authority, and I mean WITH AUTHORITY. Ok, I'm on board. So today she towered over the field. The pace looked to be contested and she looked to sit a dream trip. My only concern was that - racing luck - I'd missed her two wins when she was a price and now that I was on the bandwagon she'd be over the top. But, I read she was not nominated to the Breeders' Cup and this would probably be her final start of the year. A win here and she sews up the divisional title and a probable Eclipse award. I was certain Pletcher was "all in" today with her and we'd see her best run of the year. It couldn't have played out any better.....three across the track dueling, but the splits were not too fast so that as Princess of Sylmar tracked them she was never asked for run. As they hit the halfway point on the turn she made her move. As Hall of Fame announcer Tom Durkin called, "....there she goes, she is picking them off 1 - 2 - 3 and sweeps to the lead!...." And with that she was G - O - N - E! WHOOOOO HOOOOO! I'm two-for-two with my "BEST" selections!
You can look at it a lot of different ways, but in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, it was almost too good to be true......Ken & Sarah Ramsey were having a best-day-ever with their "Kitten" stakes runners; today they had the best three-year-old turf filly in the country running; the pace was like it had been drawn up for her as a set-up; and the west coast turf fillies had been getting beat by east coast shippers all spring and summer. It was a slam dunk. But then you have to add in, today was the FIRST Ramsey turf runner I've bet in a stakes race. What are the odds that the ONE stakes they lose is the one I'm on board. Sigh.....you knew this was coming - 4th at 8/5. I missed in the finale with a 7/1 runner where I'd doubled the bet and through the first half mile I thought, just maybe........but no. The Governor's Cup wasn't until after 11 pm but I stayed up and watched.....Prayer for Relief was a fair 1/2 when they got in the gate, but by the time they were moving down the backstretch he'd been pounded with late money to 1/5. He swept up on the far turn four wide appearing much the best, but the dog fight was on. Not with Alternation.....I was right about him, he was not in peak form, but two long shots made Prayer for Relief work. He put away the #1 on the rail and seemed home free, but then the #5 wouldn't go away and he surged late......OH SO CLOSE! But - as you can see below - a win! My eleventh of the day. A good call to add him to my list of selections. I'll remember the day for the big wins and the mid-afternoon rally of winners......but SO many seconds, wow.
August 18
So, after the way yesterday went I was still looking forward to betting my "BEST" of the day at the Spa in the Grade 2 Lake Placid; and I had some other selections on the card as well. I had read Friday about the stakes race today at Del Mar and one of my favorite horses was running. So this morning I went to DRF online and saw there was a video analysis of the Grade 2 Lake Placid. I also saw there were two big races at Woodbine today and the Grade 3 Phillip Iselin Handicap being run at Monmouth. So, I started some research..... First I looked over the Monmouth race and I knew these guys. In fact I was very familiar with the top contenders and it looked like a good spot for The Last Gunfighter who had been one of my top three choices in the Met Mile (I bet and won with Flat Out that day!). I watched the DRF analysis and he seemed to be the one they favored as well. I then watched the two Woodbine videos and read Jim Bannon's comments. I read articles on the race and there appeared to be two standouts. In the Grade 2 Sky Classic Forte De Marmi looked solid, but all indications was he was a deep closer so I was worried about his trip. In the 123rd renewal of the $500K Breeders Stakes everyone was all over Up With The Birds. He seemed a slam dunk and a single in multi-race wagers. So I was down with all three of these. When I went to Brad Free's analysis for Del Mar I didn't see anyone I liked, so I passed his races. After an afternoon at the movies and then a light dinner I tuned in for the replays....
I watched the simulcasts first.....first up I watched the 6th at Woodbine, the Grade 2 Sky Classic. I'd decided to bak Forte Dei Marmi, but only for the minimum investment. I was just a little edgy about his deep closing style. Well, today he raced only four or five off the lead and BLEW by in the stretch - TONS the best! I'm a winner! At 6/5 I didn't make a lot, but it's a win and a profit :) Next, to Monmouth for the Grade 2 Iselin. Not only did I have the best horse, but I had Jersey Joe Bravo who is "money in the bank" on the Jersey Shore. He had The Last Gunfighter looming boldly behind the front runners, including the co-favorite, a Pletcher front running/presser. On the turn Bravo asked and 'Gunfighter surged to the lead. But the Pletcher horse wasn't done and the two of them went at it tooth and nails the length of the stretch. Neither would give and it was a thrilling race to watch. But in the final fifty yards Bravo got The Last Gunfighter to prevail by about a half a length! YES! 2-for-2, and I had doubled the bet on this one! He paid a nice $3.60 so I collected nearly $20! In the "best" of the three simulcast races I had tripled the bet on Up With The Birds. He sat about mid-pack. and when his rider asked, he exploded by horses and the race was OVER! A convincing win by a real runner, really impressed. For as good as the hype was, and as good as he ran I felt lucky to get 1-2 on him. With my triple investment I collected over $20 :) Now, on to Saratoga with a three race win streak! My first selection scratched...... In the 5th, my second pick ANOTHER Pletcher 2yo won. I doubled the bet, no more because his 2yo turf runners are not nearly as reliable as his dirt sprinters. But I got a $4.50 payoff and another $20+ in winnings....four in a row!
In the 7th I reall liked Neck of the Moon. he was a dominant winner sprinting on the turf here last summer. Then was away for eleven months before running here on Opening Day. He was the 8/5 favorite and was wide third. He had a blistering work just a week ago and I thought he would be much the best today. Trainer Chad Brown a good 27% second off the layoff. He made his big move on the turn and then held on.....not nearly with as much authority as I'd thought he would win by, but I will taked my FIFTH winner in a row! I had tripled the bet so I got back nearly $40! I am having a VERY good day! Now it was the featured 8th, the Grade 2 Lake Placid. Tapicat had been unbeaten this past winter over the turf and I thought she'd come back at a fair price last time out in the Grade 2 Lake George. The only problem that day was she'd have to rate off a long-shot front-runner, something she'd never done before. But she did it beautifully and spurted clear in the stretch. Probably the layoff got to her as in deep stretch the in-form multiple stakes winning Kitten's Dumplings passed her for the win. So with one under her belt I looked for a BIG improvement today. And to make things even better, she looked loose on an easy lead today! As the gates sprung open she easily went to the front. She was about a length and a half clear as they were half way down the backside when Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith made an early move.....I thought he was clever to distance himself right now as the best horse and she was clear by four! Through the turn and into the stretch she was running with a daylight lead. But at the furlong pole her momentum had flattened out and I could tell the closers were making up ground....WHERE'S THE WIRE! It didn't come soon enough :( She was passed in the final fifty yards by four horses in a disappointing finish. I missed again at 6/1 and then in my final bet I was second at event money. Ironic that I went against Chad Brown in the 10th and he won; I went WITH him in the finale, against a Pletcher runner.....and of course Todd won again.....sigh......still, I was an excellent five for eight on the day with a clear profit!
Travers Week!
I spent a great deal of time today on the upcoming trip this weekend to Saratoga :) I called to confirm our hotel; found restaurants and made dinner reservations for Saturday night after the "BIG DAY," and found other local restaurants that will be good spots to consider for the first night. I was happy to learn today, through texting with Jason that he plans to arrive on Friday around noon. I thought at best he'd be there Friday night. This will be great as I land at 11 am in Albany, about 35 minutes away. We should arrive at the hotel about the same time and head out to the races together. We have reserve seats for both the Friday card, featuring the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes, and of course The Travers card. I found online today that the gates open at 7 a.m. - you can have breakfast there - and first post is at 11:35 am! I also starting working on a special program to analyze all the races for both days and some historical background to both Saratoga and the Travers Stakes. In racing action today it was back to the "one-a-day" routine. I thought after the great five for eight day yesterday I would go on a roll, and when I won the opener I thought "here we go!" But that was it for the day. The interesting story on this race was that So Lonesome was shipping in from Delaware Park and his trainer had yet to run a horse at Saratoga. He showed a best of 128 bullet work and I thought they must have believed they had a special kind of juvenile. Didn't hurt that a MSW purse for 2-year-olds at Delaware is $38K while here at the Spa it is a $70,000 payoff! He stalked the leaders, split horses at the top of the lane and took off as much the best!
In other racing news, I added my latest horse to the "Wall of Fame!" It was, no surprise, Wise Dan. I've been wanting to add him ever since the Breeders' Cup, but felt that Groupie Doll deserved first shot from that weekend as she'd been my "BEST" of the day that Saturday. But I've been on Wise Dan all the way back to the spring of last year. It wasn't the multiple graded wins that put him here so much as the story that accompanied the Breeders' Cup win. You can see the video on my "Wall of Fame" page, but here's the "Readers' Digest" version. As the race was being run and the horses hit the far turn (right in front of us) my youngest son Brad, sitting right behind me, was screaming his lungs out for Wise Dan. Now he'd made a couple of bets over the two days and he cheered for my horses (which were also his) a few times, but this was like so out of character for his behavior. I had $50 to win and was elated. I had Kim film my winning comment and as she handed me the camera I turned around and put the lens on him. I asked, why were you cheering so loudly Brad? I figured he was going to tell me he'd bet $10 on Wise Dan - big for a $2 bettor like Brad. His grin nearly split his face wide open as he said, "I had $100 to win on Wise Dan!" OH MY! That's my son! Then he told me "HIS STORY" to the bet..... Before the race he and his fiancee Lauren had gone with Kim to the paddock to take some photos. He knew he wanted to bet, but didn't have any or enough money, but he'd seen a ATM near the paddock. So when they finished he told the girls he'd meet them at our seats. But when he got to the ATM it was out of order! He speed-walked to the other end of the grandstand - and it's not a small grandstand - and made the withdrawal. Then he found a teller, made the bet and arrived back at our seats as they were loading into the gate. I had Kim follow us to the windows and take our photo after the cashing in "ceremony!" It's one of my favorite photos of us, and instead of just the race data for the bottm of the picture I made a special tag, see it below, so the story will ALWAYS be a part of the picture!
August 21 - 22
It is NOT the way I saw the days heading into the big weekend going. I leave Florida tomorrow morning skidding on a fifteen race losing streak.....YIKES! The best news has to be, HAS TO BE that for the last eight plus years over a span of more than 12,000 races I always end up with a winning percentage of around 30%. That's true if it is for a season, a month, and typically for a week or even a day. So for the week I've scored one win from sixteen selections. That would mean that to reach a 30% win rate for the week I'll be winning more than a dozen winners over the next twenty some races while at the Spa! From a handicapping perspective I truly want to make it a winning weekend, but I have to admit I will enjoy being at the Travers (in the long run) regardless of how the selections run. I've spent probably close to 15 hours putting together a program for the weekend, here's the cover:
Travers Weekend 2013 - August 23 / 24
Friday August 23 Video Recap
What a great weekend! I had looked forward to coming to Saratoga for almost a year, once I had heard it was their 150th Anniversary, and specifically to the 144th running of the "Mid-Summer's Derby," the Travers Stakes. This year the top three sophomores were going to square off for divisional leadership: Orb, the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby winner; Palace Malace, the Belmont Stakes and Jim Dandy winner; and Verrazano who won the Haskell Invitational to run his record to six wins from seven starts in dazzling fashion. My brother-in-law, Jason, was driving from Erie Friday morning while I flew up from South Florida. I was on board my flight by 6:30 and the "non-stop" service to Albany STOPPED in Baltimore. I thought that "non-stop" meant....don't get me started! We were ready to take off when the airline attendant announced that a light would not go out indicating a cargo door was open, though it clearly was not. It was a half an hour while they determined yes, it is closed. And then the subsequent paperwork....finally we took off. We arrive in Albany in a PERFECT afternoon with temperatures in the high sixties. I got my car and headed to Ballston Spa where Jason and I were planning to meet at our hotel. As I drove I thought several times I need to get Kim up here for a weekend getaway, this might be a great spot to settle into a retirement home for the spring-fall while spending the summer back in Florida! I got there a little after noon and we were hoping to get to Saratoga in time for the opener. I had prepared a two-day program with selections in most of the races, and I had a runner in the opener I really liked. As I waited for Jason I began to feel like we might make post time, but just to be on the safe side I decided to make my bet through twinspires.com. My pick in the Friday opener was Havana - a Todd Pletcher first-time 2yo who had been working well for his debut. Jason arrived and we were on our way, plenty of time! But when we got into Saratoga Springs - about a five minute drive from our hotel - the traffic was backed up.....of course; everyone was arriving just in time for the first race! We found the parking lot eventually and then we were sent winding our way way, way, way back behind the stables. The good news is I certainly got my two-mile walk in for the day before I even began to roam the track! When we finally got on the main road and headed towards the gate I could see the tote board and I was pretty sure it was showing #1-Havana as the winner of the first! I watched the replay later that night....he was ultra impressive, nearly breaking the track record! HORRAY! Not only for winning the first race of the weekend, but also because it snapped a fifteen-race losing streak I'd been working on since Monday!In the second race, the Chowder's First Stakes, I really liked The Lumber Guy. He was a graded stakes winner and was coming off a layoff, but his trainer had put him through a series of sharp drills, AND his best speed figure had come when coming off a long layoff. He pressed a very hot pace, and honestly I thought he was too close to the pace, but as they turned for home he surged to the front! But by the time they hit the furlong pole just in front of us a deep closer was flying by on the outside. The Lumber Guy was determined and wouldn't go down without a fight, but eventually he gave way and held on for second. We took a stroll around the facility and I was amazed that on Friday, just after the first race, the backside / picnic area was PACKED! I remarked to Jason that I can't even imagine what it will look like tomorrow. We got to our reserved seats, where we were situated close to the 16th pole with a great view. Several times I remarked how gorgeous the day was! The temperatures were in the upper 70's all afternoon and there was a nice cool breeze. It was just awesome. In the third race I had selected Writingonthewall to spring the upset. I've seen this guy run many times before. At one time he was a front-running stakes winner on the turf, but now he's a one-turn, main-track sprinter. When he gets loose on the lead he is very tough. Today looked to be a good spot for that to happen. He broke sharply and went right to the front. He was pressed down the backside and through the turn, but when they turned for home he kept right on going and surged clear late. His odds had been a very nice 4/1 and the payoff was $10.80! I cashed for nearly $30 (in real money this time!) and I'm 2-for-3 on the day! Race four we were on the turf. My solid selection was #1-Yo Blue. Two races back he had been claimed for $35K by trainer Michael Maker for top owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey. No owners are hotter in racing today, and Maker has been phenomenal with his claims. But that wasn't the main reason I selected him. Yo Blue had a turf record of three wins in six starts....excellent in any turf event. But what made him a standout was that the rest of the field was a COMBINED 4-for-65 on the grass. In retrospect I should have invested even more on him. But, I was just a little leery after his connections had raised him all the way up to a $75K spot last time in open allowance company, and today he was back in for a $35K beaten claiming tag. No problem. He dominated the field! My double investment returned nearly $20, and now I've won three out of four. I'm having a good day for sure. In the fifth, a two-year-old maiden special sprint on the turf, I didn't have anyone that I thought gave me enough of an edge to win. Still, in my analysis I listed my top choices. And my top selection WON, and paid over $6. Wow, it IS a good day. But, I came right back with yet ANOTHER winner in the 6th, and this time with my money on the line :) It was a maiden claiming event going seven furlongs on the main track. I had selected Herd Mentality. I debated at first about the selection because Todd Pletcher had a runner in here that was not going to be a short price. I had thought, "these are just the kind he wins because he's not nearly as consistent with his maiden claimers." But I really liked the second half of the entry. Herd Mentality was trained by Terry Pompay, who was off to a slow start (0-for-7), but according to the Saratoga Handicapper 40% Club analysis she wins 42% of the time with horses making their first start of the meet - CHECK; and she also is in "the Club" with dirt sprinters who win at a 42% clip - CHECK! He was 5/1 when I bet with about ten minutes to post time, but dropped down to 3/1. Jason and I went to the rail to watch the race. Herd Mentality sat off the pace until the turned for home and then he took dead aim on the leader. He collared him right in front of us and drew clear in deep stretch to WIN! He paid a nice $8.80, so I cashed for over $40! I am REALLY enjoying the Saratoga weekend! In the seventh we were back on the turf. My pick was #8-Bustle. Her last three races weren't anything special, but four back she'd beaten this level of claimers with authority with a field-best speed figure. Prior to that she'd been "best-of-the-rest" second at Gulfsteam where the competition, especially in turf events, is pretty stiff. I thought she was a stand out. But as they spun out of the turn she looked to far back to me. As they ran by us the pink saddle cloth with a big, back 8 on it just flew by as Bustle hit overdirve. Impressive turn of foot. It's not a fair comparison, but the last time I saw a stretch explosion like that was when Goldikova blew by the field in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Mile! I was delighted that the crowd let her go off at an inflated 5/2 price.....she paid $7.40 and I cashed for nearly $40! I am guaranteed to have a winning day!
Elusive Rumour, a Todd Pletcher runner was my pick in the 8th, a turf sprint. But I didn't have a lot of confidence, but he was going to be a price. He was at 7/1, but he ran to his odds and was a non-factor, finishing seventh. The 9th was the feature of the day and my "BEST" of the day. It was the Grade 1 Ballerina for fillies and mares going 7 furlongs. My pick was Book Review. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert had sent her here from California, and he's a 50% winner with his shippers to the Spa according to the Saratoga Handicapper. Leading Del Mar jockey Rafael Bejarano came along just for this ride - you KNOW they are serious! And to top things off, Book Review had a sparkling record at today's unique distance, five wins from six starts! There looked to be a good amount of speed to set up her late run today from about mid-pack, so I was confident of her chances. Her main rival looked to be Dance to Bristol, who I had won with as my "BEST" a few weeks ago in the local prep for this, the Grade 2 Honorable Miss. But the competition that day, and in all her previous races - and make note she'd won SIX in a row - were nothing like what she'd see in Book Review today. But as they moved down the backside I was a little concerned. Instead of sitting four or five off the front, Bejarano had Book Review about ten off the leader while Dance to Bristol was in a perfect tracking position about two off the dueling leaders. On the turn Dance to Bristol made her move as Book Review began to gather steam. When they turned for home Book Review was 4th, but gaining! As they passed us at about the 16th pole Book Review had draw nearly even and had all the momentum. It was a stirring stretch duel with one head up and one head down. All props to Dance to Bristol who simply refused to lose.......it was a tight photo finish, but I was second. That would have been a perfect end to the day....but still, I'd won five of eight, 62% and had a nice profit on the day - who can complain? One other cool thing from the day - we'd been in our seats through about three races I beleive and the couple next to us pointed to the program we had and asked, "Where did you buy that - that's nice!" When I explained I had designed and printed it myself, they were very impressed and said I should have printed a lot of them and sold them for $10 :) Jason and I went back to the hotel, finished checking in and asked for a local place to eat. We ended up at the Ripe Tomato and it was packed. We had excellent local fare and a beer over dinner. I enjoyed spending the evening with Jason as we talked about our upcoming cruise this November - it will be the first for he and Kim's sister Wendy. We were back at the hotel by about 8:30 and I worked on the video and looked over my selections for the BIG DAY tomorrow before heading to bed. Jason on the other hand, as soon as his head hit the pillow he was OUT! But to be fair, he'd driven for over six hours today to get here, and had started at the same early 6:30 am time that I had. As I turned out the light my final thought was........
Day One - HUGE SUCCESS!
Saturday August 24 - Travers Day Video Recap
Saturday morning broke with it being a crisp 52 degrees outside and when I stepped out on the deck out our sliding glass door I could actually see my breath! It's going to be a GLORIOUS day! Our plan for this morning was to find a local breakfast spot and have a full breakfast around 8:30. Back to the room by 9:30 and head to the track by 10 am. The first race is set for 11:35, but the traffic and crowds are projected to be insane and Jason & I agreed we'd rather be there early than be fighting with the crowd. We were tipped off by the hotel front desk to the Matel Tavern, just minutes up the road. It was a GREAT find! Just the kind of "local flavor" I was hoping for, and not surprisingly every one was talking about horse racing! Even the waitress....the first thing she said, was "Here's my picks for the big race today....." and from there we exchanged who we liked and didn't like. We both had complete breakfast plates and multiple cups of coffee before heading out to the race track. I couldn't believe that the entire picnic area was PACKED again and it was only 10 am! We found a small spot on the rail in the paddock and did a short video clip - any thought of coming to the paddock to see the horses was obviously out of the question, every possible space along the rails, and it is a HUGE Paddock, were covered with blankets, chairs, and tents. Our seats for the big day were just a little farther from the finish line, but not by much.....yesterday we were in Section N just inside the 16th pole and today we were in Section Q, just about a third of the way back from the 16th pole to the 1/8th pole. Here's a panoramic photo I took from out seats. Note the size of the crowd on the apron and the fact the rail is packed......think this is before one of the big stakes races later in the day? Nope, it's before the FIRST race! I heard later that the crowd was nearly 50,000 on the day!
About thirty minutes before the first race we went down to the rail and I asked a girl to tak a photo. She did a nice job, without my asking, of getting the iconic roof and announcer's booth in the background! I had a new hat for the day and one of my racing ties was an identical color match.....as several people remarked in text or on Facebook, I was "stylin!" In the opener I went with Bradester. I had seen him dominate a race at Gulfstream on New Year's Day and had put him on my "watch list" as a future stakes runner. Well, he had not been out since then, a break of almost eight months. But he had won all three of his career victories when coming off a layoff. He was bet down to be the mild favorite and he made a big run through the lane.....I thought as they passed us he would go on by, but he was a close second. When I had made my bets I discovered that my pick in the fourth had scratched. So I told Jason I was considering making my pick in the third (no selection in the second) a double my own bet investment. I had liked the fact that in the paper we read at the diner this morning, all of the selectors had picked Bobby's Kitten to win and two of them made him their "BEST." In the Daily Racing Form Dave Liftin had also made Bobby his "best bet." My only hesitation was that one reason I liked him was Joel Rosario was riding. But he'd been injured yesterday and was off all his mounts. I didn't dislike the jockey who replaced him, but he wasn't one of the leading jocks. Meanwhile in the 2nd Jason boxed three horses in a $1 trifecta and WON! Well done! After the race I announced my decision. I was going to double my original bet, a double investment, on Bobby's Kitten and he would now become a "Prime Time" investment for me!
As we waited for the race to start I was telling Jason about Ken & Sarah Ramsey, and how successful they had been all year. I also remarked that even though our rider wasn't a "big name" guy, he'd ridden well all winter and spring in New York, and probably would see this as a chance to impress a top trainer and owner, with the thought that maybe he'd get some big mounts from them down the line if he gave the colt a good trip, and especially if he won. The race was a one mile race and he'd been closing late last time out when he got into trouble. A clean trip today from four or five off the leaders and I thought we had a good chance. The outside post would mean we'd lose some ground early, but that didn't matter since Bobby's Kitten did his best running late. The gates sprung open and Bobby broke sharply.....but then, OH NO! The rider took him to the front! He had to use even more speed to clear the field as they swung through the turn. Jason looked at me and I said, "that's not good, we should be coming from off the pace!" Then Tom Durkin announced the first quarter time: :22 and change - WAY to fast! I turned to Jason and said, "That's not good!" When they reach the far turn he was still on the lead, but now the field was coming to him. He held his position through the turn, but now the pressers were just a length off him and the closers were gathering momentum. I was not confident of our chances. But then, as Gomer Pyle always used to say, "Surprise - Surprise!" Bobby's Kitten shifted gears and opened up on the field to win by daylight under wraps! WHOOOO HOOOOOO! My "Prime Time" investment paid off in spades! We cashed, I filmed a "victory spot" and then we went down to the bar to collect a commorative Saratoga 150th Anneriversary glass full of Coors Light! Celebration time.....we are off to what looks to be another big day! No surprise as I had hoped I'd have multiple winners to "even out" the losing races earlier in the week.
Sadly, that was the end of the wins at Saratoga. Some interesting stories developed none-the-less......
(1) In the 9th race I had tripled the bet on So Many Ways to win the Grade 1 Test at 7 furlongs. She went off at a huge 11-1 and I really thought she had a good chance, while acknowledging she was a longshot. She was a closer and as they turned for home she split horses and was making a winning move just as they past us.....but then flattened out. She was a good fourth though - it was a good bet, but without a win to solidify the thinking.
(2) I will grant you that the odds that I would have done this were slim, but Jason was typically taking my numbers and sometimes adding his own, but was keying a horse or boxing three horses in a trifecta. In the 6th race I had listed the top three horses as: 10-Hudson Miracle, 8-Elroi, 1-Grahamandwithers, and because I was on the fence I added a fourth horse, 2-Sunworshiper. The finish came in 1-2-10, I had all three. And at odds of 9/2 over 26/1, over 9/5. A $1 trifecta box of the four horses would have cost $12 and we would have netted $616! When Jason pointed out they were all my numbers I did the figures and I said, we should have bet a tri-box for all the races I passed on today. Well, the next race I passed was the 8th race. I had listed 1-Prado Cat, 2-Rapscallion, and 3-Frac Daddy. The finish order: 3-2-1 at odds of 7/1 over 4/1, over 25/1. A $1 trifecta box would have cost $6 and we would have had $401.50 returned to us! In the 13th race I passed, but I only listed two horses 7-Slamarama and 5-Smiling Bob....the finish 7-5 at odds of 2/1 and 5/2, a $2 exacta box would have cost $4 and returned $22.40. Taking my top picks for all fourteen races, we would have had 12 races at $6 (3 horses in a $1 Tri Box), 1 race with a 4-horse box at $12, and one race with a $4 exacta box. The total cost, $88. Our return would have been $1039.90.....we could have split it for a mere $44 and each returned home with $519.95. Wow.......
(3) Probably the BEST story of this Saturday is this one......going back to Gulfstream, in their first 7 furlong graded stakes for 3-year-olds I backed Todd Pletcher's Forty Tales. He was a late-running 2nd, missing by a half length off the layoff. In his next start, also at Gulfstream, the Grade 2 Swale I backed him again and he was an even 4th. Disappointing. OK, hold that thought on the disappointing Forty Tales..........meanwhile late last summer I won with a Del Mar maiden named Capo Bastone. He rallied from the back of the pack, rare at 5 1/2 furlongs, and many said he had Breeders' Cup Juvenile and maybe Kentucky Derby potential. The rest of his two-year-old season he disappointed, though he did run third in the Breeders' Cup. His owners transferred him to Todd Pletcher and he made his three-year-old debut at Gulfstream, where I bet him and he won! Now.......after the two losses by Forty Tales and Capo Bastone disappointed on the Derby trail, they both showed up on Opening Night at Churchill Downs in the one-turn-mile Grade 3 Derby Trial. Having already been let down by Forty Tales not once, but twice I went with Capo Bastone. They were FLYING down the lane and hit the line together. Forty Tales won....sigh. About a month later they both were in the 7 furlong Grade 2 Woody Stevens. I again went with Capo Bastone.....he was a dull sixth, the winner - yes, Forty Tales.....WOW. So now we come to today's 11th race, the 7 furlong Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes. I wrote the brief version of the above and concluded with this fact - Forty Tales had rattled off three straight graded wins, with the last two earning triple Beyers. The only other figure in the entire lifetime career to be a triple Beyer had come when that one horse had been defeated by Forty Tales. So today I backed him at 5/2. As they turned for home I was watching Forty Tales. He was weaving through horses, but was too far back, and flattened out at about the 1/8 pole in front of us. That's when I heard track announcer Tom Durkin call, "....and here comes Capo Bastone at 23-1! Can he get there in time.....YES! Capo Bastone WINS the King's Bishop......" Wow, sigh, wow.....he paid $58.50 on the day I decided to give in and go with Forty Tales......really, wow.
(4) Finally, in the Travers. I really thought that Verrazano was going to prove he was the real deal, so I'm not sure it would have made a difference to me in terms of my betting. But I will say, I thought because it's the Travers at Saratoga it COULD be the time to go with a longshot. I looked and looked at all the runners who were not the Derby winner, Orb; the Belmont winner, Palace Malice; or the Haskell winner - the once-beaten Verrazano. I couldn't find anyone I could make a case for. The morning of the Travers our waitress pointed out her three picks and one of them was the #5-Will Take at 10/1 in the program. When she walked away I looked at Jason and said, "No, she doesn't have the right horses." I was reading in the DRF between races and my eye was caught by an editorial by the DRF's head man. The headline said he was going against the top three favorites in favor of a longshot. So I scanned down to who he picked......#5-Will Take Charge. I looked again at his pp's and no, he couldn't win. His lone good race was a good 2nd in the Jim Dandy last out, but honestly he was drubbed by Palace Malice and there was no one else in the field with any quality, somebody had to run second. His trainer, D. Wayne Lucas had pulled off the upset in the Preakness, but that day he had Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens. Today he had Calder's leading rider, who moved to New York this spring, in Luis Saez. And finally, consider that Lucas was 1-for-38 at Saratoga this summer. As they turned for home, Verrazano stopped; Palace Malice never fired. Orb ran a brave race, but faded to third. Who won, you guessed it, Will Take Charge at better than 9-1 and paid $22.50. It was right there in the Form IN THE HEADLINES! Sigh........
I did cash one more winning ticket on the day. After the King's Bishop I had a bet on one of the four Florida Stallion Stakes back home at Calder. I had won twice with Brown Eyed Guy and he seemed ready to roll today despite stretching out from six furlongs to seven. Then I read the article about the race in the Form and the trainer of the top challenger said he expected his colt to run well, and would not be surprised if they won, BUT he felt he had his best chance to run down Brown Eyed Guy in their NEXT meeting when they go two turns in the In Reality Stakes. I tripled the bet on My Brown Eyed Guy. As they came out of the turn it was clear that seven furlongs was not any of these youngster's best distance, at least in this early time of the fall. But My Brown Eyed Guy was on the lead and kept on going, pulling away late to score at even money! I finally cash again! And I earned back a nice $30 pay out! WHOOO HOOO! I also had one bet at Monmouth where I went with Joe Bravo's mount in the Omnibus Stakes. He was sitting pretty on the rail and he made his move down the backstretch, but a horse cut him off and he had to steady sharply. But that horse then moved quickly up the rail, so Bravo followed him. Just as quickly the horse stopped and Bravo had to slam on the breaks again! He moved outside of horses, but I thought, after being checked twice his chances were over.....but no! He was flying as they turned for home. He was boxed in from moving outside, and a hole opened between horses. Bravo went for it and just as quickly the hole closed and he had to steady and check again. Still, he perservered and got third....but what a miserable trip!
But for the weekend it was a good time. Loved being in upstate New York. I read the final numbers on Travers Day were over 47,000 in attendance, the biggest crowd in ten years and the total amount bet was over $41 million! The day Friday was an unbelievable day at the races with five wins :) And for the weekend I finished 7-for-20, a solid 35%. I lost a little and in the end it was the photo finish loss by Book Review in the feature on Friday, my weekend's BEST BET that was the difference in a profit or loss. She wins and I would have had 40% wins and a profit for the weekend. But the experience was just great.....love to travel and go to big events like this!
August 25
Well, even though I was on a great weekend trip, the highlight of the summer handicapping project, the project goes on! So, before and after the races on Saturday I handicapped the Saratoga card, and at the airport this morning I finished handicapping the big Del Mar card where the feature race is the Grade 1, $1 Million Pacific Classic. I had actually considered and looked into staying one extra night in Saratoga because the feature at the Spa was the Grade 1 Royal Ensign, featuring two-time Breeders' Cup Distaff champion, Royal Delta. But it proved to be too expensive. So, at the Albany airport I made my Saratoga investments.
I tried to be conservative in which races I played. I was very confident in my initial bet - it was a maiden special for 2-year-olds, and yes, there was a Todd Pletcher debut runner. I was surprised when I watched the replays that Potosi's Silver was 5/2 and not odds on. Instead my third choice was odds on. She had a race under her belt and after dueling with the Pletcher runner for a half mile, she was clear and I was second. I missed again in both the 6th (at 14/1) and in the 7th when I was second - again. But then victory was mine! In the ninth I liked Gentlemen's Kitten. He had won back-to-back turf routes and then ran in stakes company. Today he was back into allowance company and picked up John Velazquez to ride. The "kittens" of owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey have been winning all over the country at an unbelievable rate going back to January. Gentlemen's Kitten inherited the lead when his entry-mate, and uncoupled in the wagering, took a bad step while on the lead and pulled up. It looked like he might get run down, and it was close, but I knew I'd won even though it was officially a photo finish. Then it was time for the feature race and my "BET of the Day!"
It was the Grade 1 Personal Ensign and the star attraction was two-time Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic, or now back to it's original name, Breeders' Cup Distaff Champion. Under normal circumstances she'd be a mortal lock. But after two dull efforts to start 2013, including one on Downs After Dark Night when we were in Louisiville, she looked like the champion she is with a dominating score last out in the Delaware Handicap. The question was, could she continue to rule, or would she be upset - like she was in this very race. I watched the race live on TVG. There was concern she'd acted up and was washed out....and then the pace she set was very quick for going nine furlongs. But when they came out of the turn she found another gear and romped home by open lengths in a dominating victory. Somehow she paid over $3 and I was delighted to cash for close to $50!
That ended the Saratoga card, but not the winning! In my first selection at Del Mar it looked to me like Magic Union would sit a perfect trip behind the speed and it was exactly the way I saw it and he ran right by the long-time leader to score at a nice $8.80 price....I cashed for another $20 plus. Next up, the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap - going a mile on the turf. The star was the quickest miler in the west, Obviously. Today I was a bit concerned....he was in post four, outside of another speedster who looked like he was quick enough to run with Obviously for at least six furlongs, which would soften him up. But all the national handicappers felt Obviously would simply outrun them all. The gates opened and Obviously stumbled and was behind the field! That is one of the cardinal rules of winning as a front-runner - BE IN FRONT! But he recovered and by the first turn he was in front. When the half went up in :46 and change I knew I was home free. But then the closers were coming and it was very close at the finish.....whew! Not really worried, but I was hoping for an easy romp; especially at 1/5 on the board. But he ran to my prime time investment and I was collecting nearly $30! In the sixth it looked to be a talented group of two-year-olds, but I went with Bob Baffert's Primal Instinct who had a best of ninety-one bullet work. He pushed the pace on the inside into the stretch and then was done....a disapointing sixth. Time for the feature race on the card and one with a very interesting story.
Because Saratoga races Wednesday through Monday, today was the final day of the next-to-last week of the meeting.....rather than the first day of the last week of racing - not that it really matters :) But, after today there are only six days of racing left at Saratoga, and with the end of the meet it will be the end of summer racing and the end of the handicapping project for this summer. Well, I planned to be conservative in my selections and betting, but found SEVEN bets from the ten race card and nearly half of them were triple investments or better! The first race I liked was in the second, a Maiden Special for 2-year-olds, and it was the Pletcher runner who was 9/5 on the morning line and seemed like a solid pick. The works were not as spectacular as I'd thought they should be so I only went in for a double investment.
The odds were 4/1 at post time and Domino Derval ran a big race, but was only second best....that would have been a good way to start the Monday card! I was second at 4/1 in the second with a 1st-off-the-claim runner for Michael Maker and the Ramseys who was stepping up in class.
I got my first when in the 4th in a turf sprint. Madame Giry was a multiple winner in turf sprints, but had been at least four back in every start except her last.....I thought she'd go back to a stalking spot today and prove best. And she did! I had doubled the bet and collected over $20! In the 5th my selection was Bedouin Now, another Michael Maker / Ken & Sarah Ramsey runner. Only, unlike Elusive Act in the third race, 'Bedouin was dropping in class and she was facing a group of turf runners who were NOT winners over the lawn! They were a combined 5-for-83! WOW. And Bedouin Now had only been over the grass once, a win at the $35K level....today she was running at the $20K level. Add to that she was first off the claim for the Ramseys and I thought she was an obvious pick. So did the crowd as they sent her off as the odds-on choice at 4/5. The gates opened and she went right to her knees and her nose actually rubbed in the sod. Spotted the entire field multiple lengths and that was the end of that. In the 6th Todd Pletcher's Sneaky Blowout was DRF Handicapper Dave Liftin's "BEST" of the day and I liked him a lot as well I tripled the bet. He was dropping from MSW and had the best numbers by a BIG margin. I thought he was too far back, and the way Tom Durkin called it, he seemed to think so as well. He got into gear late and flew by the rest of the field, but was never a threat to the winner.....second, my third runner-up of the day. The 7th was my BET of the Day.
I've said many times that it's one of the things I like best about racing. Your "best" isn't always in a graded stakes on the weekend, and Plainview proved that in this starter-optional claimer. He loved to win on the turf with six career wins, and that included a perfect 2-for-2 record here. Better yet he'd won his last two in nw1x allowance and nw2x allowance, so a claiming spot was actually a drop in class. And best of all, he was the LONE SPEED! Right to the front and long gone, never having to take a deep breath and this handicapper was never worried about the outcome! My "Prime Time" investment cashed for $40 and with one race to go I was poised to have a winning day! In the 10th I'd tripled my investment on Sapphire Blue, but when they got in the gate I realized he was scratched.....sigh. Still, a nice two for six day, 33%! One week to go, hoping it's a BIG week of wins!
August 28 - TWO Stakes Wins To Start Final Week Of Summer!
The card at Saratoga included five races I liked enough to invest on, and the feature at Del Mar had a VERY fast filly looking to win her initial stakes race. In the opener at Saratoga I liked the Todd Pletcher 2-year-old Commissioner to win this 9 furlong test. That is a L-O-N-G way for juveniles to run this early in their career. So the key for me was who had shown the ability to handle two turns on the main track? There was only one, the Pletcher colt. He had rallied from the back of the back in a one-mile maiden special test to be second. That's even more impressive when you realize that the Jersey Shore is well known for being a speed-favoring strip. Today he was sent off as the 4/5 favorite, but was quickly about 10 off the leader. I felt confident the front-runner would come back to the pack, and as they hit the top of the lane he did. Commissioner made his move and blew right on by, but then the second horse came to him.....Commissioner seemingly began to edge clear, but inside the final 100 yards the #7 challenger came back! PHOTO FINSISH! Though it was officially a photo, I was certain I'd won.....and I did :) Whooo Hooo - one-for-one to start the final week of the summer!
In my second play of the day I doubled the bet on Toasting in the My Flag Stakes, also going nine furlongs. She pushed to the lead at the top of the stretch and then my "other" horse came to her. I thought Toasting was the classier of the two, having run in open stakes while the other filly had been in strictly state-bred stakes, but she right on by Toasting....second. I considered upping the wager on Bluegrass Flash in the 5th when he was bet down to 4/5, like Commissioner had been. But I refrained - good thing, finished a well beaten 7th! Then it was time for the P.G. Johnson Stakes for 2-year-old fillies on the turf. There were four fillies who had run nearly identical figures (74-75) in their last start. I settled on the maiden Granny's McKitten. As you can guess, she is a Ramsey filly and what I liked best was that in her debut - going two turns over the turf - she had rallied from last and just missed in spite of very slow fractions. With a more honest pace today and with the rider switch to top jockey Javier Castellano I thought she had a great chance to win. She rated kindly and then blew them away through the lane.....and in the process gave the Ramseys their 19th win of the meet, a NEW SARATOGA record for wins by an owner....the same thing they had done at Keeneland. This couple is having one heck of a year! I missed in the finale at Saratoga when Present Course could not quite get to the lone speed front runner. But I closed the day with a wire-to-wire winner in the feature at Del Mar. Sunday Rules had - according to the TVG gang - run the most impressive debut win of the meet; in fact the runner up had come back to score (as my choice under the lovely Chantal Sutherland!). Today Sunday Rules looked long gone if she ran anything like her debut pace figures. She went very fast early and it looked like the field was coming to her as they turned for home, but she had another gear left and won by double digits for my THIRD win (in six picks) on the day!
August 29 - ANOTHER Stakes Winner!
Today I am headed out, again, for another out-of-town jaunt! The focus is not a racing weekend, but we're headed to Houston to visit our grandson! And it's opening weekend for college football, including the first college football game in the history of Houston Baptist University's program. Our oldest son Jeff is the wide-receivers coach there and has been working for nearly two years for this night. I'll be in the stands with our daughter-in-law, Antoinette, as they take on the #4 team in the country, Sam Houston State University, on the road. Kim is delighted to have little Cameron all to herself for the evening and watch on TV. But, before we left for the airport I made my investments at Saratoga and got to watch the opening few races. I went against the odds-on favorite in the opener for a price play. Blind Hope ran well at 9/2, but chased the winner home who was LONG GONE. In my second selection Jess Not Jesse. Since moving to the turf seven starts back she'd won five of them, including a near-perfect mark here of 5/4-1-0. She was a photo loss away, in her latest, from having a perfect mark at Saratoga. She rode the rails through the first half mile, but then was squeezed back by dueling front-runners who were setting sizzling fractions. The rider smartly moved her outside and she rallied down the lane to draw off to a convincing score. I'd doubled the bet so I cashed for nearly $20.
I watched the last three races of my selections while we were on the plane waiting to taxi to the gate on my iPhone.....how great is technology?!!
In the 6th I was second, again, at a nice 3/1 with Victory Island who rated off the pace, but could not close on the 7/1 winner. In the 9th I doubled the bet on Roses For Romney, who was sent off as the 4/5 favorite....she looked like the main speed if not the LONE speed from the rail. But she broke slowly, tried to secure a spot on the rail but was checked and steadied sharply before they hit the first turn and that was the end of that. She moved to a challenging position as they entered the far turn. But like most front runners who don't make the lead, she stopped badly to be last. The feature race today was the Grade 2 With Anticipation Stakes for two-year-olds on the turf. I had been impressed with the game effort by debut maiden winner Bashart a couple of weeks ago. And it didn't hurt that he was Todd Pletcher-trained and had the rail for top rider Javier Castellano. In my analysis I remembered that I had bet the Pletcher maiden winner Corfu who dueled and held on to win, but had gone against him when he stepped up in company and stretched out. He won the Grade 2 Saratoga Special at a nice price and I missed it. Fool me once, shame on you .... fool me twice, shame on me. So I backed Bashart. He was 4/1 as they approached the gate, but took late money to go off at a little less than 3/1. Wire-to-wire! He led into the stretch and the pressers and closers were coming, but Castellano asked for his best and he opened up again.....LONG GONE at a nice $7.70, so I was cashing out for nearly $40! WHOOO HOOO! In the finale it was my "Best" of the Day, and Dave Liftin's "BEST" as well as nearly everyone else. She was THE LONE SPEED and had six wins from seven turf starts. On the lead on the turf has been the safest bet at Saratoga over the last week or so, and Brandy's Secret looked loose on the lead. Sure enough, she set sail under reasonable fractions from the opening of the gates, and looked home free in mid-stretch. The only horse close to her was a 30-1 longshot.....no problem, right? No, caught in the final strides by a $71 winner, second for the third time today. But I'll take the 33% winners on the day and near break-even performance with the bankroll.
August 30 - 31
Friday the 30th was a great day.....just not at the races. Spent the entire day with our grandson Cameron (see above) who has grown so much just since March. He's crawling, and just so very happy all the time! On the race track it was a frustrating day...... In the opener Ogermeister came to the leader, took the lead in mid-stretch, but could not hold off the third choice....second. Then in a race that had all the makings of a solid stakes race, it was a match-up between veterans Caixia Electronica and Saginaw. The two combined for FORTY-THREE wins and nearly $3 million in earnings! I thought Saginaw had the pace-position advantage, and he'd delivered my birthday win earning me nearly $75! He was my top pick on the day. Saginaw was in perfect position and moving on the turn when suddenly he was pulled up. He was injured and had to be put down after the race. So sad :( I came back to be third and then a non-factor 8th in my fifth and final selection on the day. On Saturday the highlight of "Woodward Stakes Day" was one of the main reasons we came to Houston. Our oldest son Jeff has been working with Division I-AA Houston Baptist University's football program as they built the program from scratch, all in preparation of tonight's opener against Sam Houston State! First EVER game in the history of the university! The panoramic shot below shows the opening kickoff. Considering HBU is made up of nearly half freshmen starters and SHU was coming off a runner-up national championship performance, with 9 starters back on offense and a national #4 ranking, the game wasn't really very close. 
After the game I watched the replays from my selections. The good news - the "BEST BET of the DAY" won! Silver Max went right to the front on the rain soaked course in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch. When they spun out of the turn and headed for home a long-shot presser was coming to him, but he drew off with ease! WHOOO HOOO! The bad news - two, not one but TWO Todd Pletcher 2yo debut runners ran second in my opening two selections. As seems to be the case, I was zigging when they were zagging - Misconnect dueled and led into the lane, then was run down by a closer; then Village Hero rallied to catch the survivor of a pace-duel and couldn't get up in time. Sigh..... I ran second again, and then won with Silver Max. Fast Bullet looked to wire the Grade 1 Forego, he'd won every race he'd started with the exception of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint when he was coming off a year-long layoff. But he was dueled into defeat by a longshot; stable-mate Justin Phillip showed his inconsistency by being unable to finish from off the pace. WOW. Then in the Grade 1 Woodward Paynter looked to be the LONE speed after two scratches, including defending Breeders' Cup Classic winner Fort Larned. Then, in a start very reminiscent of that Breeders' Cup Classic when post-time favorite and front-runner Game on Dude missed the break with Rafael Bejarano riding for Bob Baffert, Paynter missed the break for the same connections. Tried to press the pace, but faltered with no late punch. Ironically, I had a bet on an $11 winner but when it came off the turf I cancelled the bet. To be fair, two other runners who stayed in on the sloppy surface lost, but it would have been a profit for the three combined. Tomorrow is our last day in Houston before we head for home on Labor Day, Closing Day at the Spa and for my summer racing season.
September 1 - THREE Wins on final day in Houston
Today was the last day of our Labor Day weekend trip to Houston. I placed my investments online before we headed over for the day to Jeff & Antoinette's to see the "little man" and watched the opener on TVG with Jeff. The first was the Speed Boat Stakes, an overnight $100K event with conditions that read, "....for three-year-olds and up that have not won a graded stakes in 2013...." And these conditions fit Samitar to a "T." She had won a Grade 1 last fall and this year she'd been in graded stakes, but her lone win on the year was in a listed stakes like this one. The only worry was that the course has been SOOOOO speed favoring and she is an off-the-pace type runner. Well, as the race unfolded not only did she have to fight the course profile, but the #4 horse, Baffle Me turned out to be the LONE speed! She set dawdling fractions of :49 and change for a half mile and 1:13 for three quarters. Still, Samitar's class was too much for her and she ran her down in mid-stretch. It looked like she was going to blow on by at the furlong pole, but Baffle Me would not go down quietly! The battled to the wire with Samitar gradually edging clear in the final 100 yards. WHOOO HOOOO, I'm 1-for-1 on the day! In the second I had another bet, this time in a two-year-old turf route. I thought that Illapa had a good chance as she exited a KEY race where the runner-up, still as a maiden, had come back to score in the PG Johnson Stakes on Wednesday ..... as my top choice! She too sat off the pace in fifth, looked to be making a move as they hit the far turn, but flattened out and ended up being fifth under the wire at 3/1. I came right back in the third race with my third pick of the day.....ironic because I didn't have another bet until the 9th! This race was a a maiden special, going 1 1/16th over the Mellon Turf course, for older horses. My pick was Hamnet, who had debuted in December when sprinting over the Woodbine synthetic main track. She was second that day, but was WAY clear of the show horse. Since that start she had been transferred to the Chad Brown barn and he was bringing her back going long on the grass. This was ideal for me - Brown is a solid 26% with horses making their first start for his outfit, and better yet, he's a Saratoga 40% Club member with horses coming off a long layoff like this. Much like the first two selections she say mid-pack and then rallied on the turn. And just like Samitar she looked to have all the momentum and would cruise on by. But, like the first race the leader would not go away. It was one head up and one head down through the final 16th and while I wasn't really ever worried, it was officially a PHOTO FINISH! The official picture showed Hament the winner by a little more than a head - see at right. But best of all, I had not seen the odds as she scored......she'd gone off at 5/2 and paid over $7.00. I collected over $35 and was on my way to a winning day! In the Grade 3 Saranac, Todd Pletcher's Notacatbutallama continued his trend of winning when I do NOT bet him and NOT winning when I do.....2nd at 2/1. In the Grade 1 Spinaway, a seven furlong test for the two-year-old fillies, I went with Pletcher's Sweet Whiskey who nearly set the track record in her debut. She made a bold move on the turn but was 4th. My third choice, who had won from an amazing 18 lengths off the pace to break her maiden scored....incidently, I should have noticed - she'd won in the mud that day, just like today......But my BET of the Day was at Del Mar, where the "Surf meets the Turf!" In the third race - one of several stakes races, but I just didn't see any clear advantage in any of those, it was the overnight $100K Torrey Pines Stakes. The star attraction was Beholder, who was a multiple Grade 1 winner out west, and had won over this track. In her latest she had nearly won the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, only to be run down by Princess of Sylmar, who has gone on to solidify her status as top sophomore filly of the year with convincing scores in the Grade 1 CCA Oaks at Saratoga, and then as my "BEST" she won the Grade 1 $600K Alabama a couple of weeks ago in convincing fashion. Beholder's rivals were HUGELY overmatched if she ran even her "B" race today. She projected to be the lone speed, and only having to travel a mile would be an ideal return to the races trip for her. Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens took over the mount today and had her in front within the first 100 yards, easily. She cruised around in front by a narrow margin to the far turn, and then when the other five started to run, with the delusion they could catch her, Stevens took a peek back, shook the reins and she was GONE. Didn't even take a deep breath! Like many of my "BEST" she didn't pay much, but it was the fact that I was SO right, and made her my BET of the Day that was as rewarding as anything else. Tomorrow, Labor Day, we fly out in mid-morning and should touch down just as the final card of the Saratoga meet gets underway. I have just a couple of selections there and a couple at Del Mar as my summer racing season concludes. Will sorely miss my daughter-in-law, my oldest son and my grandson as we fly off.......but, luckily we are coming back in mid October!
September 2 - Closing Day
We flew out of Houston this morning after I'd made my last four selections at Saratoga. I had also handicapped the Del Mar holiday card and had three picks......When I handicapped the closing day card I passed the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth races. Part of the reason may have come from the fact that four of the five were on the turf and I wasn't sure if the races would actually be on the grass - as it turned out they were not - or that I couldn't find any one that I truly felt I had an edge with. I debated about playing the fourth, a maiden claimer on the dirt which was a full field of multiple losers for a price tag, but had one lightly raced runner, Foggy Road, who had been second at this level two back and today had top rider Javier Castellano. But seemed a little iffy - he won and paid $6.40. But in the 6th it was a solid investment - a Todd Pletcher 2yo first time starter. Harpoon was a $500K Keeneland purchase and all he had to do was break cleanly, I thought, to win. But the heavy favorite was too quick and too good for him, second best today. But right back in the 7th was another Pletcher two-year-old. Sound of Freedom had been on the "Also Eligible" list but I bet him anyway, hoping he'd draw in. He did and went off as a solid favorite. He broke on top despite the outside draw and set the pace to the top of the lane and then drew off impressively. It proved to be my final win of the meet - and a fitting one that it was a Pletcher juvenile! My upset pick in the Grade 3 Glen Falls scratched when it was moved to the main track....you know they had a lot of rain if Saratoga took a graded stakes off the turf! And in my final selection of the meet, the Grade 1 Hopeful for two-year-olds, I was still not convinced about Pletcher's Corfu. So I went with the "other" Pletcher, King Cyrus who had Castellano on board and was 10/1 in the program. He went off at 6/1 and really was never a factor. The Del Mar Labor Day card featured several stakes races, so I wanted to handicap the card. I found three races that I liked. In the 4th it was a MSW for two-year-olds and Hall of Fame Bob Baffert had a debut runner that had fired a blistering bullet for today. Jo Jo Warrior sat fourth from his outside draw and then blew by the field as much the best! The second of three surfside selections was in the Oak Tree Juvenile Filly Turf. I thought Clenor laid over the field as the ONLY winner on the turf, in fact the only one who'd run on turf, and the only winner going a route of ground. She sat in the back and came FLYING on the turn and drew off easily. I think she's got a chance to be a factor in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf! My final pick came in the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon where I thought Halo Dolly stood a good chance to defend her title....made a nice run through the turn, but evenly through the lane to be 4th.
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